Micro Persuasion

Even if Twitter is Just a Geek Haven, It's Still Very Influential

There's been an interesting discussion over the last few days about Twitter's reach. WSJ reporter Kara Swisher surveyed her dinner party and found out that no one there uses the micro-blogging site. Meanwhile Gina Trapani on Lifehacker is running a survey asking if Web 2.0 benefits only the tech elite.

Now let's look at the data. According to figures just out from Hitwise, Twitter is the 439th largest social networking site and 4309 overall. To be sure, growth is booming. But the site is still niche.

So all of the signs generally point the same way. Most of the social networking and online communities are definitely geek havens. MySpace, Facebook and YoutTube are three that have gone mainstream. So does that mean these smaller sites, like Twitter, are not worthy of a brand's time? Hardly.

Geeks are by far more influential than any other online contingency, except the big media. Geeks pass the puck from Twitter to blogs back to Twitter. Eventually it hits Techmeme, Saul Hansell at the Times takes notice and then the whole world knows.

That's why smart companies like JetBlue and Zappos are legitimately engaging on Twitter. It's becoming a front line for customer service. At a minimum, every consumer facing company should be monitoring the chatter. Even better, participating can cut problems off at the pass or even better foster evangelists. The numbers may never tell this story. For more, see Chris WInfield's mini case study.

Three Internet Careers That Soon Won't Exist

Earlier this year the New York Times detailed how careers in medicine and law - formerly bankable lifetime gigs - have lost their luster. College grads instead are pouring their resources into trying to create (or join) the next Facebook or MySpace. Maybe it's time to rethink those plans. Digital is going to become part of almost everyone's job.

After climbing to the stratosphere, jobs in Web 2.0 are way off their peak. The following Indeed.com chart shows a steep decline in listings that mention social networking, Web 2.0, Ajax and blogs. Naturally, the macroeconomic climate has a lot to do with this. However, when you look at other jobs that are historically sensitive - such as shipping, advertising or public relations - the slide isn't as dramatic. This (arguably) indicates that perhaps there's still a lot of air in the Internet specialist job market.

"social networking," ajax, "web 2.0," blogs Job Trends

"social networking jobs - " ajax jobs - "web 2.0 jobs - " blogs jobs

The web has finally become the dominant marketing and media platform and where everyone is largely focusing their resources. It's "the new normal." To me, this means that there will be less of a need for digital specialists across many industries. Some of these jobs won't exist in their current form within a couple of years. They will be integrated into broader roles. Everyone will be expected to know how to navigate the online landscape if they want to have a thriving career.

Here are three such jobs that will soon be integrated into other roles...

Social Media Consultant, Social Media Manager, etc.

Things don't fit into tidy little boxes they way they used to. My friend Dave Armano wisely calls this the Fuzzy Tail. He does a good job reminding us of specialist jobs that were big once - like blacksmithing - and are now no more.

On that note, let's take a look at social media. It doesn't have hard edges. For example, is a site like Engadget social media or just media? The New York Times has dozens of blogs. Does that mean it's no longer media? Beats me. Corporate HR will have an even harder time discerning.

This naturally leads to the next question - who should "manage" these sites? Is it the social media specialist or someone in PR with specific vertical sector expertise who also gets digital? My strong feeling is that it's the latter. (Then again, I work for a big PR firm so I should advise you to take this with a grain of salt.)

Net I believe that hiring someone just to "manage" social media is a luxury that companies will integrate into broader marketing communication roles.

Internet Advertising Sales, Online Advertising Sales, etc.

There's no doubt that the Internet is the future of advertising. Last week Advertising Age even dedicated its entire issue to digital marketing. Their coverage included a big section on careers.

Despite the recession (if we're in one), online ad sales jobs continue to climb . However, soon all advertising will be managed via digital technology and platforms, even if they end up running in terrestrial media. This means it will become very difficult to discern selling digital ads from just plain old ads. Clients will want to manage and measure their integrated campaigns through a single point of contact or channel and figure out how offline/online work together.

Just as onlne/print newsrooms have been integrated, so will ad sales. This means that media companies will want people who are cross-trained and thus the need for "online sales" specialists as they are known now will wane.

Digital Talent Agents

During the AdAge Digital Conference last week, a Digital Agent with a major talent agency talked about how they have a group of people who crawl the web in search of undiscovered musicians, artists, etc. These agents then pair promising amateurs with Hollywood or branded entertainment projects. I last wrote about this three years ago. Then it was emerging business. Now, however, it is becoming the norm.

Just as with social media consultants and online ad sales, the need for such specialists will soon fade. Every agent will need to know how to identify and talent from the web. The line between digital and traditional will be obliterated as more amateurs recognize that they can market themselves using the web and will forgo going on auditions.

Next up I will cover three emerging digital career tracks that I think will be hot in the years ahead; jobs that at least I think will have staying power and may remain specialist gigs.

Startups That Fail to Invest in Trust Will All Die

Web startups need access to talent. Often they need capital too (and a smart strategy for managing it). But I am going to argue here that their most essential currency is trust. However, a lot of emerging companies in particular tend to ignore it.

Here's a great example. Coding Horror (via Read/Write Web) has a tale about a downloadable software application that should send a shiver down any consumer's spine.

The story goes like this. Allegedly the developer hard-wired malicious code into the software that harvested the Gmail username and password of every single one of the application's users and forwarded it to his own email account. Whether this is true or not, I can't confirm. However, it's as good as time as any to re-raise the trust issue again.

This is what scares me about the wonderful Twitter API. A lot of these little applications may have access to your Twitter username, password and (in some cases) cell phone number. But how do you know they are trustworthy? You don't.

In a mashup world where web services and APIs rule, if you're going to create a business that in some way or another touches data you must invest in building trust. Every gaffe like this one raises the bar for the rest of the boat. B2B companies that hope to court firms to store their data in the cloud have an even higher wall than most consumer-facing sites.

No startup should launch without at least three things: a) deep insight into how people feel about the particular data they plan to collect, b) a clear strategy on how to build trust (often this includes following certain third-party guidelines) and c) a plan for dealing with company-specific issues and macro industry blunders.

VC Fred Wilson argues that an expensive PR firm may not be worth it. He's right - sorta. It depends on lots of factors. However, often you do get what you pay for and a talented group of PR people who know how to work with the media and the community can help you build trust by factoring in all of the above. Larger firms have deep access to insights, data and relationships that can help here, but obviously working for Edelman I am biassed.

For more on the subject, check out the 2008 Trust Barometer - an annual study conducted by my employer.

Media's Rising Digital Acuity Puts Agencies at Risk

The following is also my column in next week's issue of Advertising Age...

It wasn't the most talked about session at the IAB Annual Meeting this week in Phoenix, but it should have been.

In a series of fascinating frames peppered with statistics, Christopher Vollmer from Booz Allen Hamilton laid out how media companies have increased their digital skills, added new services and are winning over marketers. In the process, they're disintermediating agencies - even as they all downplay it.

Three data points from the joint IAB/Booz Allen Hamilton study are particularly noteworthy:

* By 2010, 53% of media companies surveyed expect to do more business directly with marketers. The majority of marketers (52%) feel the same about publishers

* Only 27% of marketers expect to be doing more business with agencies two years from now

* Today nearly every media company (91%) offers some kind of "agency-like" services. This includes former untouchables like idea generation (88%) and creative development (79%)

The image of media companies as lumbering dinosaurs lingering toward extinction in a world of infinite content is downright wrong. They are more in sync with consumers than any other contingency in the marketing ecosystem. Their entire DNA is digital.

Consider too the bubbling innovation taking place across the Chinese Wall on the editorial side. Almost every single media brand has embraced a spirit of openness and collaboration that was unheard of a few years ago. New York Times Tech section editors curate and link to relevant posts from the blogosphere. Reporters at BusinessWeek are re-writing three-year-old cover stories with the help of readers. CNN's new iReport.com site solicits contributions from around the world, all without filters.

The digital rallying cry that started in the executive suite is being executed flawlessly across almost every media business. Digital editors and salespeople are fully integrated with their print/broadcast counterparts. However, the same cannot be said for agencies. During his keynote at IAB, Group M CEO Rob Norman outlined how the company just recently became more digitally integrated. (Note this related story on agency Web 2.0 skills that ran in AdWeek)

Still, Group M can't be blamed for starting late since the clients too are behind. The Booz Allen Hamilton study found that only 26% of marketers believe their organizations are "digitally savvy." Nevertheless, as the media remain in the vanguard and closest to the ever-changing habits of consumers, it's clear that as they get smarter the risk to agencies has never been greater.

Spring Conference Line-Up

Spring is around the corner and so is the peak conference season. Here's a run down of events at which I will be speaking. Here's hoping that I get to meet some of you at these.

Euroblog 2008 (March 13-15 in Brussels)

This symposium features communication academics and professionals for a discussion of social media and the future of public relations. Edelman is co-sponsoring the event. I will be participating on a few panels. You can register here.

AdAge Digital Conference (March 18-19 in New York)

Great line up of speakers and case studies. This includes a keynote by Jeff Zucker, President and CEO of NBC Universal. I will be moderating a panel on "the next new thing."

PSFK Conference (March 27 in New York)

A day-long event dedicated to trends, ideas and inspiration. This includes a In a 'new guns' versus 'marketing gurus' debate on how the social web will change in 2008 and how companies can best leverage digital.

Next08 (May 15 in Hamburg)

Features entrepreneurs, marketing professionals, consultants, founders, bloggers and venture capitalists and 1,000 participants talking about the future of the web. I will be a keynote speaker.

Mediabistro Circus (May 20-21 in New York)

A two-day summit about the digital platforms and trends that are changing media.

The IABC International Conference (June 22-25 in New York)

Features a great line up of speakers, including Nicholas Negroponte and Seth Godin.

SEO Shenanigans Pose a Clear and Present Danger to Social Media

As someone who reads a lot of blogs about search and social media (a term I am still not nuts about but has stuck), I have recently witnessed a disturbing trend. Some respected experts are advocating launching social media marketing programs solely for the purpose of influencing search engines, rather than with the intent of fostering collaboration and genuine communication.

This represents a clear and present danger to the fabric of the community. If you care about the social web, then you should be alarmed.

Search engine optimization (SEO) professionals of late seem poised to take over blogs, digg, StumbleUpon and other sites with a range of tactics, some legit, others more questionable with the intent of building Google Juice and nothing more. Read these blogs and you'll see it's often all they're talking about. I am not the only one out there who feels this way.

Consider some of the following blog posts that I found in my Google Reader database...

Boost Organic Results. Link Build with Social Media (Search Engine Watch)

The Inconvienent Truth About Social Media Marketing (Search Engine Land)

Building a Company With Social Media (Search Engine Land)

Realizing SEO benefits through blogging (HitTail)

How to Use Blogs, Podcasts, Wikis and Other Social Media Tools to Find New Clients, Make Money and Create the Lifestyle of Your Dreams (Conference)

To be clear, I do not object to the way that blogs, digg links and Wikipedia rank highly in search results. What does get me hot and bothered is when consultants and bloggers propose launching such an initiatives solely for influencing search. SEO, like word of mouth, should be a byproduct outcome, not a primary objective. Any brand that plays in this space should be aiming to create value. Do that and the other stuff will follow.

But the SEO shenanigans for the sake of SEO has to stop. If you're going to play in our sandbox, follow the community's (unwritten) rules.

Open Collaboration and the Future of Public Relations

Jonny Bentwood, my colleague in the UK, has published a very thorough and provocative white paper on how to potentially define and measure "influence." The white paper was the byproduct of a meeting we held in New York with some of the industry's deepest thinkers. You can download it as a PDF, or simply peruse each section in HTML.

As Jonny says, this is not a fait accompli but a work in progress. You responded in kind. In the week since its release, many of you added valuable thoughts that will shape ours going forward. It's my hope that we can synthesize this discussion into applicable ideas we can incorporate in Edelman programs.

The release of this white paper, in a simplistic sense, illustrates what the web does best. It allows millions of connected citizens to come together as a global brain to solve problems, shape new ideas and above all spur collaborative action. The book Wikinomics, which I highly recommend, offers a lot of great examples and case studies. Doc Searls tackles a similar theme.

New communication technologies and channels grab all the headlines. However, what's far more important and meaningful (and a lot less ballyhooed) is how the web is allowing companies and stakeholders to produce outcomes that are to everyone's benefit. Dell's evolution over the past year is one great example.

That said, public relations is generally perceived as a communications discipline. We still put out lots of press releases and generate media coverage. But that's rapidly changing as the web allows us to increasingly facilitate open collaboration between a company and its customers. Richard Edelman, our CEO, has been at the forefront of this discussion. He advocates that companies take on big issues. And that's exactly what our agency is doing through initiatives like Good Purpose.

So does that mean media relations goes away in favor of new, more open approaches? Hardly. As Jonny and I wrote in the white paper's conclusion, public relations is flexible enough to cover it all. Arguably, PR programs can span two different continua. They can included tactics that are closed or open while being intended to spur communication or collaboration. The result is four quadrants, which mix together the old and the new....

1) Controlled Communication: One-way tactics such as TV advertising, online advertising and media relations that are great for branding and visibility, but are seldom collaborative. What's old still works.

2) Open Communication: Online initiatives, such as viral videos, that are designed to generate discussion, but not necessarily produce a shared outcome. Most corporate blogs are often up in this quadrant. The more collaborative blogs move "right"

3) Controlled Collaboration: Programs that facilitate participation but are more controlled, for example numerous efforts to solicit consumer generated ads

4) Open Collaboration: Win-win initiatives that open a dialogue toward reaching a broader goal. The American Express Member's Project is a great example.

What are your thoughts on this model? I'd be interested in your ideas on how this might be implemented in programs and measured - as well as any case studies on the right side quadrants. It's not perfect and it's theory. Help us move it into action.

2008 Digital Trends Part II: Living Room 2.0

Entertainment, Mac Fan Version by Horrortaxi

This is the second in a series of posts on the big digital trends to watch in 2008. Part I is here.

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For much of the 20th Century, the living room was our virtual social hub - a tangential connection to the broader world around us. The experiences, however, were never really social. However, they felt that way because we all experienced the same events from the same spot in our homes at precisely the same time.

Let's call this era Living Room 1.0. It was marked by dates like December 8, 1941 when 81 million of us flocked to the living room to get closer to the radio to hear FDR's famous "Infamy speech." Years later, as television began to dominate, it was where we "participated" in major global events, such as the Challenger Disaster, the Thrilla in Manila or Neil Armstrong's first steps on the moon. The living room kindles strong memories (both positive and negative) for anyone 30 or older. And while the technology changed from radio to TVs and later video games, the experiences were really universal.

In the broadband era, however, the living room appears to have lost relevance. Today, the web is where we turn connect with others - and the connections are real, not imagined.

Consider, for example, the big news this week - the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Many of us I bet, unlike days of old, did not participate in this global event from our living rooms. Rather, we did so in real-time with peers on Twitter via a gaggle of connected devices that really can be anywhere - bedrooms, offices, home offices or, above all, our pockets. (Consider too that Bhutto's son and heir apparent is a Facebook user.)

So is the living room as a social hub dying? Hardly. It's quietly undergoing a revival - dare we call it Living Room 2.0. The revolution started with the advent of HDTV, which is now in 13% of US homes and growing - slowly. However, the real magic happens when we connect Internet-enabled devices and services to those sets. Suddenly, the living room becomes social again because it bridges our offline connections (the family) to our online friends around the world.

Right now it's largely the early adopters who are benefiting from the revival of the living room as a social hub. There are very few Robert Scobles of the world who connect Mac Minis to 50" TVs so they can use Dave Winer's Flickr Fan to view photos of their friends in glorious hi-def. This will change, however, as the devices get simpler, cheaper and the benefits are more pronounced.

For example, one of the biggest Living Room 2.0 successes is arguably XBox Live, which is now becoming a social network. (Edelman handles all XBox PR for Microsoft.) They won't be alone. By the end of 2008 every device that already has a place in an home theater set-up will connect not only to the web but, increasingly, to existing social networking platforms like OpenSocial, MySpace, Facebook and others. This means that devices like the Wii, Slingbox, Vudu, TiVo, Apple TV or even your trusty digital cable set-top box will start to allow you to connect with the rest of the world online. And then it will become more mainstream.

So don't reminisce about the days of old when we gathered around the TV or radio and felt a sense of connection to the world at large. What's old is new again. This time your living room is going to get a lot more crowded. Get ready to invite the world over because Living Room 2.0 is going mainstream in 2008.

Charting 2007's Three Big Web 2.0 Trends

"The best thing about the future is that it only comes one day at a time." - Abraham Lincoln

Thinking about the future is fun. It's what I am paid to do. However, I never contemplate the days ahead without the context of the past. After all, the future is always grounded in history. That's why I have become a heavy user of Google Trends.

The tool is closest thing we have to a global rear-view mirror. Blog search and conversation charts only go so far. They capture what a small subset of the most vocal, tech-savvy users are saying. Search engines, on the other hand, show us what's on everyone's mind - including the giant underwater iceberg of silent users.

Like 2006, this was a big year for Web 2.0. Here are Google Trends charts I pulled looking at three broad 2007 Web 2.0 trends, along with my comments. I chose to focus here on broad trends, as opposed to the gyrations of individual sites, which always change with fickle users. (Micro blogging is an exception because the term is rarely used so I looked at Twitter instead.)

All of the data is global in scope and only as current as mid-December. Of course, all of this is just directional. Ideally, it would be great to cross-reference all of this with other sources, like Compete.com. Still, they do provide perspective.

Trend I: Social Networking

* Data: Searches for social networking and news volume both doubled in 2007. However, more recently, the volume has started to show some signs of weakness. Meanwhile, geographically, interest in social networking from India and Singapore is skyrocketing. Search volume for individual sites, like Facebook, appear to track the broader meme.

* Insight: Social networking is evolving from a group of sites into several competing platforms that power thousands of sites. Eventually, we won't think of social networks as sites but as a feature. This data might just be the first sign of such a progression.

Trend II: Micro Blogging

* Data: Micro blogging doesn't register on Google Trends, so I chose to compare Twitter and blogging (as opposed to "blogs" which is a much broader term). What's fascinating here is that searches for Twitter surpassed for "blogging" in April and never looked back. Meanwhile, news volume for the two are neck and neck. Twitter is particularly strong in Japan. That said, interest in micro blogging has dropped off dramatically this (nearly 50% off their peak in the spring).

* Insight: Blogging is work and the payoff (emotional or monetary) can be hard to come by, particularly for those of us who want to see a rapid return on our investment in time. Meanwhile, personal publishing is evolving because of the increasing sophistication of mobile devices and the Attention Crash. Micro blogging fosters connection with less work all while working well with mobile devices. Blogging remains important, however, as the traditional press rapidly embraced blogging, it has encouraged individual publishers to find new ways to spread their influence.

Trend III:: Web Applications

* Data: Google searches for web apps doubled in the second half of the year. That said they are dwarfed by stalwarts like Microsoft Office or Apple's iWork suite. Interest in Google Docs has flattened since they rolled out their presentation application. The US leads the way in web based applications.

* Insight: The search data seems to reflect what others have said - that web applications are not on most people's radar. This data is consistent with what Microsoft and Apple have said - people like their desktop apps. Web applications are in their infancy. It should be interesting to see if they will remain a niche category in the years ahead. The lack of the ubiquitous connectivity could be a major stumbling block.

Study: 25% of Entertainment Will Be Created by Peer Groups

A fascinating new study from Nokia predicts that by 2012 a quarter of all entertainment will be created, edited and shared within peer groups rather than coming out of traditional media.

What's unclear in my mind is where the boundaries are. In other words, what constitute peer content vs. pro content when the lines increasingly blur. Still, this is a big number and there's a lot of money at stake here to those who can create sustainable platforms that enable it all while monetizing.

To that point, TV Week conducted an analysis and found that while it's easy to get attention for your work, making money is a tougher climb. This might keep the figure from going higher than 25%.

Help Wanted: Warm Bodies That Can Spell Web 2.0

At least that's the takeaway I get when I look at this chart...

"social media", "social networking", "web 2.0", blogs Job Trends

"social media" jobs - "social networking" jobs - "web 2.0" jobs - blogs jobs

Just as interesting, San Jose leads all markets in job listings per 1000 people.

I will leave this to you to decide if this is a sign of a bubble or not. However, on the surface, it all looks very reminiscent of a bygone era. To quote Prince, "Tonight we're going to party like it's 1999."

Five Simple Sobriety Steps for Web 2.0 Kool Aid Boozers

Hi. My name is Steve and I am a recovering Web 2.0-aholic. Like millions, I am passionate about technology. I am particularly bullish about the long term prospect of the web becoming a true platform and its potential to change business and society. However, recently I learned I have a problem. You see, I am skunk drunk on Web 2.0 Kool Aid. (Exhibit A.)

More recently, though, I have sobered up. Inspired by others, here are the small steps I try to take every day. It doesn't exactly mirror a traditional sobriety program, but it's helped me nonetheless. Maybe it will do the same for you.

1) Study History - The history books are littered with manias (both financial and otherwise) that followed by reality setting in. The dot-com crash, of course, is only one. There are many others. Study them. Humans created human nature.

2) Diversify Your Sources of Information - God bless Techmeme. It does a fantastic job of tracking what the blogosphere is thinking about. But what if the global brain is dumb? Diversify your sources of information. Seek out those who at first you may disagree with. Nicholas Carr and Robert Cringley are two to start with. Find new blogs, ideally those written outside of SillyCon Valley and consider what they say.

3) Question Conventional Wisdom - Conventional wisdom is always right, right? Not. Read Freakonomics. If a lot of people start saying something is true, look behind the curtain and poke at what's there.

4) Don't Ignore Data - I didn't think it would ever matter, but my lack of love for math makes me wish I spent a little more time in school. Today, data rules. I am reading an awesome book on this subject called Super Crunchers. Skip what pundits are forecasting and look for hard trend data that shows how people are interacting with the Net. I keep a good collection here. Also take a look at Google Trends too. It conveys a lot about our interests. Notice how Second Life searches, for example, plummeted.

5) Talk to Real Humans - One of my favorite bloggers is Dwight Silverman. (I used to pitch Dwight during the Web 1.0 era.) Hailing from Houston, Dwight has seen many technologies come and go over the years. He constantly reminds me in public and private conversations to talk to real people - from Iowa or Planet Houston. When some of my colleagues started telling me to do the same, I got with the program. Do your sister or brother's friends Twitter? Probably not. Now that doesn't make it unimportant. Why? Because they all Google. Talk to both humans and geeks for broader perspective.

Advertisers, Only You Can Save Web 2.0

The following is my Advertising Age column for next week. It builds on what I wrote earlier this week - to which many of you added lots of great thoughts. If you're a web start-up now is the time to consider your revenue streams. Advertising will not save all, I am afraid. Remember - as much as budgets are going digital, advertising is still cyclical.

Only You Can Save Web 2.0

Years ago the Advertising Council started a landmark campaign with Smokey the Bear that had a rather ominous tagline. It reads: "only you can prevent forest fires." (They still use it today.) The subtext, which the recent fires in California clearly reminded us, was that the word "only" implies that the "you" here is singular. In other words, if you're not out there preventing forest fires, then no one will.

While not quite as dramatic, a similar burden is starting to fall on digital marketers. Are your shoulders feeling heavier yet? They should because, you see, "only you" can save Web 2.0.

Nearly every online start-up you can think of is basing their business model on advertising. It's as if your digital budgets are a bottomless pot of money with more than enough to go around for everyone. Ask any of them how they plan to stay solvent and they all fire off the "a-word" - advertising.

The conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley is that as all advertising goes digital, there will be plenty of money for every business. Further, they argue that it doesn't take much to make a start-up profitable. The cost of starting, scaling and operating a Web 2.0 site is a fraction of what it was during the Web 1.0 era.

However, just like Social Security won't allow every baby born this year to retire in 2072, the harsh reality is that there will not be enough ad dollars to go around for everyone. For starters, advertisers have infinitely more choices on where and how to allocate the spend. More importantly, you're wisely looking for ROI - scale, quality and performance. These are three qualities that many start-ups lack.

The only remaining exit strategy for the gaggle of Web 2.0 sites that are depending on you is to sell themselves to a larger player, such as Google, Yahoo, AOL or Microsoft. Some certainly will. Many won't.

If you feel you saw this movie before, you did - in 2000. The sequel ends the same way, but not with as much carnage. That might change. But remember, only you can save Web 2.0.

The Web 2.0 World is Skunk Drunk on Its Own Kool-Aid

This is a sad time for the web. It's as almost somber as the time just before the last bubble burst in 2000. I was working in PR with dot-com startups at the time and the way I feel now is how I did back then. I wish I didn't, but I do. Something needs to be said. Even if no one listens or cares what I think.

Now, it needs to be noted that I am as optimistic about technology's long-term impact on business, society and marketing perhaps as much as anyone you know. I bet my career on digital marketing. However, since I started this blog lots of people have rightfully made fun of how much I touted every little new site to come along. Their criticism is accurate.

However, over the last year my thinking has evolved dramatically. I have become less interested in every new shiny object and more engrossed in the social changes it, slowly, effects. This is in part a byproduct of the tech blogosphere getting drunk on its own Kool-Aid.

Many people I know, love and respect are heralding every new site as like it's Jes.usR.com. No one's casting a cynical eye anymore. No one's looking at valuations and reality - or at least very few people are.

The endless dot-com parties are back. So are the countless trade shows/conferences that regurgitate the same "new paradigms" the last 10 events did - with no end in sight. And yes, the ridiculous BS press releases are flying into my Gmail box. This is why I don't speak at or attend very many Web 2.0 conferences anymore. I don't have the heart for it. I would be stirring the big pot of Kool-Aid.

Let's face it, we're skunk drunk and it's because of money. It's almost like we all need to enter Betty Ford Clinic 2.0 together. This time, it's not stock market money but private equity, M&A, VCs and to some degree the reckless abandonment of logic by some advertisers who are perpetuating what is sure to end badly when the economy turns. Hubris is back my friends.

The bubble really began in earnest on October 9, 2006 when Google bought YouTube. That's when every person with an entrepreneurial itch woke up and smelled the hype and money. Prior to then, startups were more focused on the entrance, not the exit. But the Google YouTube deal and many others that followed (including big time investments) really opened up the floodgates to money and it changed the attitude of the web.

Meanwhile, the sleeping giant many of us mocked - the big media - got with the program. CNET's CEO talked about this today. The TechCrunches and Gizmodos of the world aren't a threat to his business. They're a boon because they send his sites traffic. Beth Comstock from NBC echoed a similar theme.

I am sorry to be a party pooper on conventional wisdom, really. But I miss the days of 2004 when the class that includes Flickr, del.icio.us and others started. They really were about changing the web, not making a quick buck (they did so only because they added value). There are companies still out there like them. Twitter is one I believe takes this approach. Automattic (the company behind Wordpress) appears to be another. Dave Winer also shares this spirt. He creates services like NYTimes River because it's fun and he thinks it will add value to our lives (and he is right).

However, most of the rest of today's net startups are only after the almighty dollar and while that's capitalism, it saddens me because it has done little but breed hubris.

Web Apps Strike Corporate IT Like Cloud-to-Ground Lightning

Quietly, in cubicles around the world, a perfect technology storm is brewing. This tempest may prove more disruptive to business than any other tech surge we've seen to date, including instant messaging, web-based email, corporate blogging or social networking. There's a great battle brewing over technology choice vs. control.

The web has arguably established itself as the decade's dominant development platform. This shift is rapidly spawning the roll-out of innovative applications that equip information workers with newfound capabilities for managing work, either solo or in collaboration with others.

Rich online apps such as Highrise, Google Docs, Zoho, Spinvox, Yahoo Mail, Picnik and countless others that operate "in the cloud" are quietly making bootstrappers more productive, all without the help of corporate IT. Further, this revolution is dawning just as millions of free spirited Gen Yers enter the workforce. Unlike their Baby Boomer parents, this generation is even more tech savvy and will do anything to control the flow of work as it tries to seep into every crevasse of their personal lives. They simply won't allow that.

However, all of this directly conflicts directly with today's corporate IT agenda. Understandably for a myriad of legal, ethical, reliability and security reasons, they work hard to to ensure that business information stays on internal servers. They license a host of enterprise applications - many of them are web-based.

Unfortunately for corporate IT, however, they will find that they can't move as fast as Web 2.0 does. Talent isn't the issue here. IT inertia, long-term vendor agreements, the law and Sarbanes Oxley are all weights that can shackle corporations. All the while, a more free spirited workforce is using what's freely available to them because it fills a void. With this, information is flowing into data caverns that only the employee - and really no one else - controls.

The silent adoption web applications in the enterprise will strike directly at the heart of corporations like cloud to ground lightning. IT managers who can surf into the storm waves will gain considerable competitive advantage. The key is to embrace change - or, as one Googler suggest, to give employees choice over control. (This arguably gives small and mid-sized companies a considerable advantage.) Those that crack down on choice, however, may find themselves struggling to keep up with the competition as their workforce becomes more productive, efficient and happy.

Saturday Morning Streams

Jason Calacanis and Fred Wilson have started a new form of blogging that's more Twitter style. It consists of brief commentaries on a myriad of subjects. Here's my shot at it as I sit in a Starbucks with my iPhone waiting for my car to be serviced. Let me know if you like this approach. I will add links later on. 

My move to Wordpress is not progressing as quickly as I would like. The WP team is making a Herculean effort to maintain my permalinks. They are terrific to work with and I really appreciate their efforts. If I can't take my permalinks with me I will stick with Typepad.

The iPhone version of Typepad meanwhile is quite good. I hope WP gets a similar interface.

The age of Web 2.0 innocence is well behind us. Some say it ended when Flickr sold. I see the sale of YouTube as the marker. I miss the innocent days when money wasn't the big motivation. The mania feels very much like 1999 without inflated IPOs.

As more brands begin launching their own content sites they may find themselves competing with the media. The media companies should get in front of this by enabling brands to create content. Yahoo's brand universes follow this model. BTW we haven't heard much about these sites. I like the concept. 

The whole Joe Torre episode depresses me. The man gave the last 12 years to the Yanks and was very successful. He deserves better.

The iPhone sorely needs cut and paste. Cmon 1.1.2.

Very few community sites have had staying power over the years. Two that come to mind are iVillage and eBay. Many others have wilted.

There was just as much news from companies that did not participate in the Web 2.0 conference than those that did.

I hope Twitter doesn't sell anytime soon. Can they hold out? My gut says no.

Google Docs, Zoho and Microsoft's eventual entry into the web based office wars could really replace most wikis. The versioning is quite good in these apps.

I am using Gmail for a big research project and it worked quite nicely as a database. I think a lot of people are overlooking how useful and versatile web mail is.

Most of the top podcasts on iTunes are dominated by the big media companies. They really did a great job embracing the technology.

Behavioral targeting is the big rage right now in online marketing. The challenge is that consumers are becoming more aware of the privacy implications.

Maybe I should try this blogging format more often! It fits my mobile lifestyle.

Web 2.0 Economics 101

This is going to be a short post about economics, a subject I never studied in school. Even though I am no Bernake, I do know one thing: capitalist economies operate on supply and demand. As supply goes up, it indicates that demand is heading down. As demand goes up, then it points to supplies going down. Any 7th grader knows that. It's the law. (Tell me if this severely math-challenged monkey has this all wrong.)

Yet people are not thinking about economics when it comes to the web - particularly Web 2.0. Here are two key trends to consider.

A) As the supply of content rises, attention decreases and demand lowers -  e.g. traffic thins
As I wrote earlier this week, the entire concept of measuring sites on traffic is becoming totally moot. Why? Yup, good ol' uncle supply and demand. It's much harder to attract people to web sites when there's much more content and it becomes a commodity. The people who got in early and achieved scale or have a truly differentiated approach will be the winners (thanks in part to Google Juice). The Attention Crash is another force at bay here too. It's directly related.

B) As the supply of ad-supported media rises, inventories swell - e.g. this equals less ad revenues
There's a good story on Reuters today about how there will not be enough ad dollars to go around to all of the sites that hope to make money from it. Why? Yup, uncle supply and demand. As media proliferates, the ad budgets gets flattened across all of these sites. There is one key exception, however. Advertisers still - for now - like to buy lots of eyeballs. So once again uncle supply and demand spoils all the fun and that's why consolidation rules.

The economics of the web are truly deflating. These two trends are directly related. When people start ignoring basic economics that spells trouble (which rhymes with bubble). If you're a start up or an advertiser, pay attention to these two trends. They will have a big impact. It's going to get very hard for advertiser-supported startups to get any scale when it comes to revenue.

Bookmarklets for the Web 2.0 Jedi Master

Bookmarklets, in case you're not familiar with them, are bookmarks that perform a specific action. I can't live without these because they speed up my day, especially when you use them with browser keywords. Here's a list of some new ones that I have started to use in the last few months. Just drag these to your bookmarks/favorites bar and you're good to go. For more fun with bookmarklets, be sure to also check out Blummy.

Pocket Tweets Pop - pops up the Pocket Tweets interface for interacting with Twitter. (More pop-ups here)

Twit This - send a web page directly into Twitter (requires you first enter your info on the TwitThis site)

Map This - pops up a window, enter an address and you will take you to the map

Gmail-to-Gcal - takes any selected text in Gmail and converts it into an event

Mobilize Me - great for mobile phones, takes any web page you're viewing and strips away the formatting by running it through the Google mobile transcoder

Share on Facebook - takes a web page and sticks it into Facebook as a shared item

Pasword Saver - for sites that won't remember your login info, click this link then enter your username/password and your browser will never forget it

Take Screenshot - automatically create a screen grab of any public web page you're visiting

Search and Highlight - scans a page for any term you enter then highlights the results

New Doc - creates a new word processing Google Document

Movie Times - enter your zip code and get a list of all the movies playing in your hood

Amazon This - pops up a little window, enter a term and it will run your search through on Amazon

Convert Me - takes any YouTube video and converts it into another downloadable format using Zamzar

Edit in Picnik - pushes a web page's images into Picnik where you can edit and save it

How the Portals Will Win the Social Networking Wars

Every time I make a prediction, there's a better than 90% chance I am going to be wrong. But this one, you can take to the bank. The portals - AOL, Yahoo, Google, Windows Live, all of them - will be big winners in the social networking wars.

"What," you say? "How can that be? I already spend all my time on Myfaceborkutspace. My life is there. My friends are there. I lose an hour each time I even log into Myfaceborkutspace. Portals are so Web 1.0. I am all about Web 3.14159265."

I can't rebut this argument. Social networking is certainly rising and there seems to be no end in sight to the phenomenon. However, what I do know is that people will jump around from one Myfaceborkutspace to another and not all of them will win. This is particularly going to be true as social networking evolves from a destination into a feature of every web site.

So what does this have to do with the portals? Actually, a lot. They will be big winners, no matter which social networks dominate over the long haul.

The portals own the glue that keeps many of us connected to our structured social networks (e.g. Myfaceborkutspace) and the looser ones - e.g. a personal network of contacts. And that glue is a trusted communication system that works with every person and social net.

No matter which social network(s) you participate in, even if you float, you're going to turn to your trusted communication system to manage it all. This will include any or all of the following: a) web-based e-mail, b) instant messaging (which is nowadays integrated), c) RSS and d) telephony tools like Grand Central. And who dominates those? Yup. The portals - all of them. They have a pretty good lock in, especially as they give you all the storage you need.

This is not going to change. The big blurring of work and home technologies is allowing people to achieve greater flexibility in thieir lives. Webmail and IM are big drivers here. We're hooked but good because we use these four tools to also manage our interactions on social nets. I expect the portals will eventually build in new features that make this even all the more efficient.

Further, a lot of interactions you have within a portal site are monetized. So more social networking translates into more bacn, emails and IMs from contacts you want to follow, RSS feeds, voicemails, etc. This cascades into more ad clicks, searches and banner/rich media ad views. The result? Free money for the portals. Thank you Uncle Myfaceborkutspace! Even better, they didn't have to build a competitor. They just sit back and simply cash in.

APAC Rising: A Conversation with Glenn Wolsey

In Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat (now out in version 3.0) he talks extensively about "the great leveling." Specifically, he writes about how broadband-enabled populations in India, China and elsewhere will make waves here in the US. This is more than just theory. It's reality. All you need to do is look to the emerging voices from Asia Pacific (APAC) and their ability to make money from US advertisers.

Web 2.0 in APAC is rising. A lot of talented, new voices are emerging from the region - and quickly at that. Two of my favorites are Amit Agarwal, a technology analyst from India and author of Digital Inspiration, and Leo Babauta a Guam-based blogger who writes Zen Habits and also contributes to Web Worker Daily. What's notable here is that both are making money from US advertisers. Leo, who has 20,000 RSS subscribers, works with BlogAds and Amit (15,000 daily subscribers) uses Google Adsense.

No one, however, is more impressive than Glenn Wolsey - a 15 year-old from Rotorua, New Zealand who writes one of the single best blogs about the Macintosh as a productivity and photography tool. Glenn, who has 2,000 RSS subscribers, doesn't have the same reach as Leo and Amit. Yet at such a young age and barely blogging a year he is making money from US advertisers and managing it all on his own. (He is getting lots of love from PR pros too!).

I recently interviewed Glenn via email. His story is impressive not only because of how much he was able to accomplish at such a young age, but how he is making money (and working quite hard at it). His story shows how the media landscape is not only flat, but global.

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SR: How many advertisers are you currently working with? Do you handle all the sales/placement yourself or does 9Rules handle it for you?

GW: 9rules doesn't do anything to help with the running of the blog or advertisers. It's simply a network where they list my recent content and allows me to connect with other talented bloggers. I deal with all advertising sales myself, and am currently working with around six different companies/developers on a regular basis.

SR: Where are your advertisers based - US or in NZ or elsewhere? It seems like they are from the US?

GW: Most advertisers are international, a majority coming from the United States.

SR: What - if anything - unique are you doing to maximize their return on their investment?

GW: I've always kept a simple vision when it comes to blogging for maximum output quality for myself and advertisers. Quality content people want to read. I don't try and trick people into reading anything, they read it because they enjoy it. I try to take on board a similar approach with my advertisers, only taking on "quality" advertisers my reader base will be interested in.

SR: How do you maintain a "Chinese Wall" between your editorial and the advertising?

GW: I have a pretty strict policy with sites such as ReviewMe - I don't take any money for actual blog posts, and don't plan to. When a post goes live on my blog about a product, it's because I personally wanted to write about it, not because the company is paying me for it. With the editorial and advertising barrier, if the advertiser comes out with an amazing new product, I may write about it, but it's not something I have to do.

SR: Was the decision to take advertising a difficult one? How did your readers feel about it?

GW: I pretty much started right off the bat from week one with advertisers, so it has been a non-issue. Saying this, I know I could be making a lot more return on the blog than I currently am, but I'm not comfortable turning the blog into an ad haven like the popular John Chow.

SR: Were there any considerations in that you are under 18 as it relates to taking ads? How did your parents feel?

GW: Nothing as such. I've been working in this online field for a while now and my parents have had no problem with what I'm doing. I'm very open with them in taking about my working life. It's a common thing to sit down to dinner each night and give them a brief run down of my day. They've been very supportive with what I do.

SR: How are you able to balance your time between cricket, your girlfriend, your blog, your school work and now video?

GW: It's not an easy thing to do, trust me. For instance yesterday I was out from 7am to 7pm for pre-season cricket training. However I still managed to fit in a "full" working day and get all my appropriate tasks completed. I feel it's all about discipline, and getting the most important tasks out of the way as soon as possible. I've also found in necessary to time block the times of the day I'm most efficient in.

SR: It seems like a lot of blogs from India and APAC are starting to really get legs in the US. Was this always your plan or did the blog sort of take off?

GW: It was always my plan to launch the blog internationally, hence taking a dot com domain name. My blog is actually more targeted at those living in the United States rather than my home country New Zealand due to the huge target market overseas. I've even found myself veering from the New Zealand grammar rules to write for Americans.

SR: Finally, what's next for Glenn Wolsey? Do you plan to turn pro full time or head to college and continue.

GW: I don't even think this is something I can answer. There's so much I've done in my life to date, but also so much I want to do in the future. Surprising to some, I'd love to take on a career as a Wedding/Event photographer, or maybe a tad of photojournalism. The future is wide open for me, and I'll be approaching it with open arms - it's an exciting prospect.