Micro Persuasion

2008 Digital Trends Part II: Living Room 2.0

Entertainment, Mac Fan Version by Horrortaxi

This is the second in a series of posts on the big digital trends to watch in 2008. Part I is here.

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For much of the 20th Century, the living room was our virtual social hub - a tangential connection to the broader world around us. The experiences, however, were never really social. However, they felt that way because we all experienced the same events from the same spot in our homes at precisely the same time.

Let's call this era Living Room 1.0. It was marked by dates like December 8, 1941 when 81 million of us flocked to the living room to get closer to the radio to hear FDR's famous "Infamy speech." Years later, as television began to dominate, it was where we "participated" in major global events, such as the Challenger Disaster, the Thrilla in Manila or Neil Armstrong's first steps on the moon. The living room kindles strong memories (both positive and negative) for anyone 30 or older. And while the technology changed from radio to TVs and later video games, the experiences were really universal.

In the broadband era, however, the living room appears to have lost relevance. Today, the web is where we turn connect with others - and the connections are real, not imagined.

Consider, for example, the big news this week - the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Many of us I bet, unlike days of old, did not participate in this global event from our living rooms. Rather, we did so in real-time with peers on Twitter via a gaggle of connected devices that really can be anywhere - bedrooms, offices, home offices or, above all, our pockets. (Consider too that Bhutto's son and heir apparent is a Facebook user.)

So is the living room as a social hub dying? Hardly. It's quietly undergoing a revival - dare we call it Living Room 2.0. The revolution started with the advent of HDTV, which is now in 13% of US homes and growing - slowly. However, the real magic happens when we connect Internet-enabled devices and services to those sets. Suddenly, the living room becomes social again because it bridges our offline connections (the family) to our online friends around the world.

Right now it's largely the early adopters who are benefiting from the revival of the living room as a social hub. There are very few Robert Scobles of the world who connect Mac Minis to 50" TVs so they can use Dave Winer's Flickr Fan to view photos of their friends in glorious hi-def. This will change, however, as the devices get simpler, cheaper and the benefits are more pronounced.

For example, one of the biggest Living Room 2.0 successes is arguably XBox Live, which is now becoming a social network. (Edelman handles all XBox PR for Microsoft.) They won't be alone. By the end of 2008 every device that already has a place in an home theater set-up will connect not only to the web but, increasingly, to existing social networking platforms like OpenSocial, MySpace, Facebook and others. This means that devices like the Wii, Slingbox, Vudu, TiVo, Apple TV or even your trusty digital cable set-top box will start to allow you to connect with the rest of the world online. And then it will become more mainstream.

So don't reminisce about the days of old when we gathered around the TV or radio and felt a sense of connection to the world at large. What's old is new again. This time your living room is going to get a lot more crowded. Get ready to invite the world over because Living Room 2.0 is going mainstream in 2008.

ABCNews.com Relaunches with Citizen Journalism

ABCNews.com is marking its tenth anniversary with a bold new redesign that features increased use of video. Beyond the new skin there's not a lot that's new with one key exception - ABC is opening up to contributions from citizen journalists.

According to Michael Clemente, Senior Executive Producer, the new site, which it launched last night, is designed to harness the power of what they call "citizen reporters." Viewers and readers can now help ABC help report the news by feeding in news and leaving comments. The new site also supports video uploads from cell phones and video cameras, some of which will make it on to air.

ABC isn't going as far as the BBC, which allows remixing, or USA Today, which turned its site into a social network. However, it's certainly a step in the right direction. The comments that are streaming in (118 as of this writing) are mixed and mostly focus on the design, not the ability to contribute.

NBA Makes Playoffs Videos Available for Download

The NBA continues to chart new waters when it comes to its use of new media. Rather than aligning with iTunes or Google Video, which it did last year, the league is making all playoff games available for purchase and download right off their Web site. Individual games are $2.99, series cost $12.99 and the entire 2007 playoff package, which runs into June, sells for $79.99. Windows XP or higher is required.

It's refreshing to see content providers go direct to users with their video sales.  However, the downside is I don't believe that you can't watch these videos on a TV (correct me if I am wrong). Still, it's a big deal that the NBA decided not to align with one of the big video stores and instead is going it alone.

The Battle Between All-You-Can-Eat and A-La-Carte TV

Cory Bergman from Lost Remote is a brave man. He ditched cable and went with an Apple TV a-la-carte solution for a week. The result: he was quite fine, thank you. He found most of what he was looking for, saved some cash and discovered new programming and podcasts in the process. Oh yeah and he didn't watch a single ad!

At home I have a Microsoft Xbox 360 (they're one of our clients) and an Apple TV connected to my Sony HDTV. The content I download off the Internet for the two set top boxes has definitely eaten into my time with cable. The latter cannot be beat for live news and sports - yet. But remember, this is essentially opening day of a nine inning IPTV game. You can imagine all of the possibilities already as audiences start adding Internet-connected set-tops and niche HD content comes in from everywhere - professionals, brands and amateurs.

All of the TV nets, including HD-pure plays like INHD and HDnet that don't have a lot of competition yet, need to seriously wake up. The same goes for the advertisers that fund them. Please, please please read Bob Garfield's Chaos 2.0. He talks about the Long Tail's impact on the economics of media and advertising. Right now, TV is still dominated by it. Things are going to change quickly as people recognize the value of getting their free and paid content over the Internet. They will save more casual viewers money and also allow them to dig deeper into their interests. Every network should be making their goods available on these platforms. Not all are.

Cory's experiment proves that it is totally possible today to go a-la-carte - and we're just getting going. More on this here, here and here. Are you sick of me shaking this stick yet? I cannot be the only person in marketing who sees the collision coming. Maybe there's a "don't look at the train coming at you" philosophy since it's so disruptive and there's a lot of money at stake.

How Apple TV Can Change the Economics of TV

The following is also my column in next week's Advertising Age.

This week, like thousands of early adopters, I picked up an Apple TV. It lead me to believe that as Internet-connected set-top boxes take off, Apple and others will change television, and with it, TV advertising.

Apple TV is a small set-top box that connects to any flat-screen television. Think of it as a smart iPod. However, bloggers have also widely reported that it will work with any set that has component inputs. The box also connects to any wired or wireless network in your home. That's all you need to get up and running. Apple TV will then take any media in iTunes on your PC or Mac and copy it to an internal 40 gigabyte hard drive. You can then access your audio and video content on your TV even if your computer is off.

Most of what consumers will watch initially via Apple TV will be movies and shows purchased from the iTunes store. Unfortunately, these do not come in high definition, at least yet. So, the viewing experience is less than ideal. However, as the cost of HD video cameras sink below $1000, individuals are rushing in to fill the void. Merlin Mann, a productivity guru, told me last week his popular video podcast will be available in 720p next month.

TV for years has been a closed system. It requires big infrastructure and dollars to create content and broadcast it to the masses. And although distribution has shifted from broadcast airwaves to copper wires and now fiber optic cables, the economics remain the same.  The cable nets identify a niche that is big enough to support a sizable audience and therefore advertising.

Over time, however, niche content will change the economics of television. Millions of Americans will add one or more Internet-connected set-top boxes to their living rooms. Once they do, look out. As they discover there is niche HD video content that matches their precise interests, the existing TV networks will see their viewers erode even more. Further, brand marketers will see they don't need media to reach people in their living rooms. They too will produce their own content that will be distributed over the Internet for consumption on TVs.

TV: The Next Great Development Platform

The personal computer was the first great development platform. The PC era ushered in giants like Microsoft, Apple, Sun and others. They all succeeded in creating great software that created operating system software that made computers far easier to use and more powerful. (Microsoft is an Edelman client.)

The computer - whether it is running Windows, Linux or OS X - is still a very robust market to develop for. Moore's Law has no immediate end in sight nor does our appetite for using our computers. Further, the gap between mobile phones and computers are narrowing with announcements like we saw from Microsoft today and Apple's forthcoming iPhone. So, for the purpose of this discussion I am lumping in mobile with computers as a single platform. The future remains bright for computers.

The second great development platform is the programmable web. Lots of businesses developed wonderful tools that work solely in a browser. The specific platforms - HTML, Javascript, Flash, Ajax, etc. - may change. However, the concept remains the same. Developers create web-based applications that, by being always connected, offer considerable advantages and value.

Clearly, with all of the new rich Internet applications coming on board, the Web has tremendous prospects as a dev platform. Further, now that millions of us are on broadband connections and the tools to create software has become democratized, we're just beginning to feel its impact.

Now let me throw a curveball at you. Think about what comes next. What hardware will emerge as a fertile ground where developers will want to plant some software seeds? Is there a piece of hardware that many people own that makes this all economically viable? The answer is yes and that platform is your television.

In 2007, for all but the alpha geeks, the cable and satellite companies determine who earns the right to have a place on your TV deck. That's changing. Attach an Apple TV, an XBox 360, and soon, a Slingcatcher and suddenly your TV can do things it couldn't do before. It can download video podcasts and other content from the Internet on the fly. Software is the magic that makes it happen. Further, if you purchase a Sony set you don't even need a third party box. These TVs have wifi and RSS built right in.

The TV is undergoing a renaissance. In five year's time, 50% of what the most coveted audiences watch on their sets will come off the Internet. However, it goes beyond the changes in video content. Television will run widgets and other connected software applications. These will be different from, yet complementary to what runs on a PC desktop or webtop. That's just the beginning.

Who will create the de-facto OS for your TV? Right now that's anyone's guess. The leaders are all the stalwarts from the PC era - e.g. Microsoft and Apple. And we haven't heard from the leaders who program the web yet. Companies like Google, for example. In addition, there are the companies who make the boxes (the Tivos of the world) and the cable/telcos who re-sell their boxes. These will run software too.

What is certain, though, is that once again TV is a growth business thanks to the Internet and software. And therefore the Golden Age of Television may be a head of us, not in our rear-view mirror.

Watch Live TV on Your Google Home Page

This is really cool and a sign of where things are going. Just add this widget to your personalized Google home page and you can watch live updates from CNN and other networks. LabPixies has a similar widget.

WSJ: Google in TV Ad Serving Test

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that Google has begun a test run to serve up TV commercials to cable subscribers in Concord, Calif. I had heard this rumor a few months back but could not confirm it.

Since last year Google has been guiding the placement of TV commercials that are seen by Astound Broadband subscribers. The Journal reports that when Astound's customers watch TV, some of the commercials they see have been brokered by Google.  Advertisers buy commercial placements through an auction system. Much of it is being handled manually by Google salespeople, rather with automated systems, the Journal says.

Tags: Google

NHL on YouTube Embeds: Game On

An update to my post from last night. Keith Ritter, who runs the NHL's digital business, writes in that despite earlier reports, the National Hockey League has not asked YouTube to change the way it serves video. In other words, they have nothing against embedding. They are looking into why this occurred. Further, they have told me they are committed to sharing videos. If you blogged this you might want to amend your post.

Meanwhile, in related news it looks like CBS' relationship with YouTube is on the rocks.

Grid-Powered IPTV is Coming, But Not from Apple

Robert Cringley knows Apple and Steve Jobs better than perhaps anyone. He was Apple employee #12 and has been following the company as a pundit for over 20 years. Today Bob speculates that Apple will use the hard drive in the forthcoming Apple TV to create an Google Adwords-supported IPTV network that leverages grid computing.

Although Apple has a very big enterprise business, it's bread and butter consists of consumer products like the iPod. Most always these products do less of something, not more. So I don't see Apple turning what is a fairly simple product with a singular purpose into a BitTorrent-powered device that takes the load of its servers.

However, Cringley raises a heckuva an idea that somebody, most likely not Apple, will pursue. A tandem of services are coming together that will leverage the grid to open TV up as a content distribution channel for the masses. However, this won't come from Apple at first. The innovation will start with enthusiasts, arising from the edge of the network not the center. Just as it did with PCs and the Internet.

Already all the technology is in place for you to cut your cable and go IP if you wanted to (although you will miss it because of content). Right now it is very kludgy and really only for geeks. Take a small box like a Mac Mini and attach it to your TV - like Dave did. Then throw in a very fast connection, an app like Democracy and a file sharing system that runs off BitTorrent and you have an IPTV that bypasses your cable company.

Right now this is not for the technophobes. But software will make it work nicely. There will be numerous boxes that bring IPTV to your screen. Some will be from the big players, but there will always be alternatives in the form of commodity hardware powered by open source software. Those will be there first. In fact, they're here right now. Watch this video.

Still, it's content that's going to make this sing. Expect the TV networks to wake up soon and realize that their future growth won't come from cable and satellite companies but by aligning with every IPTV service under the sun. Some of these just might be developed by geeks like us. Others will come from the big tech companies. What Cringley does get right is that they will be partially monetized by video Adsense. The race is on.

Tags: IPTV, BobCringley, Apple, AppleTV, BitTorrent, DemocracyPlayer

The Future of Cable TV in an Open World

The race is on to turn your TV into an open content platform. This will bring more programming to your set and much of it won't come from the traditional networks. Conspicuously absent from the game are your local cable and satellite providers. Should they fail to act, they all run the risk of turning into commodity services.

If you wanted to, you can already ditch your cable or satellite provider. Wired news ran an experiment a few months back showing that it is possible to get a lot of content on your set without them, though there are still lots of caveats. As the big technologies players continue to refine their IPTV strategy, the need for cable TV programming will diminish.

Already, some of the highest quality content created by users is finding its way on to your set. Rocketboom, for example, has long been available on your TiVo. Further, there's a lot of new gizmos that will hit the market this year to bring even more stuff to your TV. Microsoft, an Edelman client, is turning the Xbox 360 into an IPTV receiver. Every TV set sold from Sony will be able to connect up to "the cloud" through home wireless networks. And of course, Apple has their own solution - Apple TV.

No matter which of these solutions (or others) prevail, one thing remains certain. TV is going to open up to the masses. It will no longer be controlled by the big cable or satellite players. Just like with the web, TV will become a much more efficient medium by turning itself into an open network where everyone can participate. Your dependancy on the cablecos will decline once more professional and amateur content becomes available on your TV a-la-carte and through the Internet.

So will the cable/satellite companies wither and die? No. But they definitely will need to evolve as these technologies gain critical mass and the networks start going direct to consumer - as they already are. Witness, for example, the rush to put TV programming up on iTunes. Here are three potential scenarios....

1) The Cablecos Embrace Change and Re-address the Economics
Right now cable and satellite TV are very inefficient. If you hate sports, you're out of luck. You still need to pay for it since it sits on your deck. The smart cable/satellite companies will begin to experiment with a-la-carte pricing. Further, they will make sure their set top boxes can connect to the Internet, allowing you to choose what goes on your set from a virtually limitless choices.

2) The Cablecos Simply Become Plumbing
Cable and satellite companies are not exactly known for their speed. The tech players mentioned above and others, such as Google and Yahoo, could rush in to provide subsidized boxes for your TV if you were to subscribe to their so far non-existent IPTV services. They will deal directly with the networks and reduce the value that your cable company offers to just pipes. This will turn their services into plumbing - commodity bandwidth.

3) A Hybrid Scenario
Under a third scenario, both IPTV and cable co-exist together in your living room. They are used for different purposes. Cable recognizes that they offer the greatest value in serving up live and local and leave the canned national content to go the way of IPTV carried by others.

No matter how it turns out, it should all be very exciting to watch,

A Glimpse of Democratized TV

In five years, fifty percent of the content you watch on your high definition television will not be delivered by your cable or satellite provider but by a "youniverse" of publishing individuals connected to the Internet. As your TV gets a lot more crowded with content, your set and the boxes that connect to them will get a lot smarter with software that helps you find what you want.

It sounds futuristic and Utopian, but it's coming. You can get a glimpse of this software right now with the Democracy player. I haven't looked at this application in about a year, but it's come a long way since.

Democracy on the surface looks basically like a video RSS aggregator, but in actuality it's a lot more. You can also use it to search YouTube and BitTorrent and view those vids in the app. Right now this kind of software lives on your computer, but in the near future it will also operate on your TV. Give it a go.

Tags: Democracy, IPTV

Disney.com Re-Launch Has Widgets But Still No Web 2.0

Disney has finally lifted the curtain on the big Disney.com overhaul. The launch was teased in Bog Iger's keynote at CES. I opine on it in my column in this week's Advertising Age, however I didn't see it live until just now. Unfortunately, it's a walled garden that does nothing to bridge to other communities where people already publish. They clearly don't get what Web 2.0 is all about.

One of the big features that Iger touted in the keynote are Disney's widgets. Well, Disney.com definitely has widget functionality in Disney XD. It looks and feels a lot like Mac OS X Tiger. Perhaps Disney was influenced by having Steve Jobs on their board.

However, unlike YourMinis or any other similar platform, you can't add your own content. Oddly enough you can do this on My ESPN, also a Disney site. They let you add the RSS feed of your choice.

What's worse, there's no way to take the Disney widgets and embed them in your own site. Just think of how many millions of citizen marketers would be thrilled to do so! I realize this site is targeted for the younger ones, but some of the TV and movie content is for teens. And many pre-teens and teens have their own blogs and MySpace pages. Look at Jeff Jarvis' son Jake for example. He's a wizard.

As I wrote in the AdAge piece, in this new era Disney's greatest opportunities online lie not in creating bigger walled gardens but in spreading its content far and wide. This means giving rabid fans the content they want where they want it. Yes, Disney needs to get comfortable seeing Mickey and crew on blogs and YouTube. It also means that Disney will need to allow people to adapt its work so they can express their own creativity. That didn't happen and it's too bad.

More in the piece on AdAge.com.

Wild Google TV Hoax Lights Up YouTube

I missed this last week but an interesting video is sparking a ton of discussion over on YouTube. In the video, embedded below, Mark Erickson shows how you can gain access to the Google TV private beta. In the screen shots he shows Mark streams dozens of shows for free off of Google.

The trick, according to Erickson, is to send yourself a special kind of Gmail message and then log out and log back in. I could not get his trick to work and felt a lot like a ninny in the process.

In the YouTube comments for the video some are saying that it is a hoax, others are claiming they got it to work. Has anyone been able to replicate this? Seems mighty cool if it's for real.

Centerworks has more on the purported hoax, which includes a response from Erickson himself to the allegations.Whether it's true or not it certainly demonstrates that it's much easier to launch such a hoax and influence a company's reputation.

So far, other than a few smaller sites, none of the big newspapers or trades have reported on the hoax. Seems rather odd that they haven't chased this. Even a whiff of juicy story gets hungry reporters with good contacts at Google going. The hoax itself is newsy. Bloggers so far are very skeptical.

Tags: Google

CBS News Offers Full-Length Katie Couric Podcast

The CBS Evening News with Katie Couric is now available as a full-length video podcast. Previously only snippets of the broadcast were available. As of today, downloads of NBC Nightly News' full-length video podcast still top both evening news programs from ABC and CBS, according to iTunes.

Tags: KatieCouric, CBS

Verizon to Bring Citizen Journalism to TV

Frank Barnako reports that Verizon will bring citizen journalism to subscribers of its FIOS IPTV service in Washington DC. The new station will included original features shot in high-definition. Other markets will folow as the FIOS roll-out progresses.

Over the holiday break I was in a Best Buy. It's amazing how the prices are coming down on all camcorders, but even high definition video recorders as well. You can get one for $1000. Pricey? Sure. But they're going to come down and a lot of video going forward created by individuals will be HD quality.

For Advertisers iPhone is a Game Changer, Apple TV Isn't

Unless you live in Guam, you probably know by now that Apple announced its long anticipated iPhone and shipped the Apple TV extender. You can read about the devices on a bazillion other sites, but start with Engadget. Let's instead think about the impact for brand marketers.

The biggest news for advertisers is that the iPhone will bring advertising to mobile devices in a way that people will accept. The reason is that the device includes an embedded version of the Safari browser. This enables consumers to browse the full HTML versions of their favorite Web sites with ease and zoom in on the content. This content, of course, includes banner and search advertising. As you can see from the screen grab below, the ads that are on the New York Times Web site are browsable right on the device. The iPhone is a game changer in so many ways, but let's not overlook this one.

So what about the Apple TV? This product, although certainly exciting from a consumer POV, offers very little value for advertisers. The reason is that it's basically a media extender. It streams purchased content from the iTunes store onto a TV. And oh by the way, only in 720p, not 1080i high definition. And while this content can include video podcasts, it's not going to create more appeal for the channel among brand marketers.

As Scoble says, the Apple TV achieves parity with the XBox 360, which supports PC to TV streaming out of the box. As a new XBox 360 owner I have come to love this feature. My family loves viewing pictures on my big high defintion TV. The Apple TV does the same with content from the iTunes store, but it's not nearly as exciting as Sony putting Internet connectivity in every TV or as Microsoft turning the XBox into an IPTV receiver. (Microsoft is an Edelman client and we do work on the XBox business.)

So, if you're scoring at home, iPhone is going to have a huge impact on mobile marketing. Apple TV won't have the any kind of impact on TV advertising.

Tags: apple, iphone, appletv, macworld

V-tail: Where Virtual Words Meet E-Commerce

 

Electronic commerce, for all of its ease and convenience, still doesn't offer the same feeling of browsing a physical store. That's all about to change, however. The gap is narrowing as retailers enter the Second Life virtual world. Get ready for V-tail.

IBM and Sears today revealed that they are bringing the 120 year-old retailer into Second Life virtual world in a big way. The presence will include an area where customers can import their own kitchen and remodel it with Sears products. Sears plans to bring the entire catalog into Second Life. It's unclear if you will be able to buy products in Second Life and have them shipped to you, but you have to imagine that's the plan. However, the CNET/Reuters piece makes it sound like it's about driving foot traffic.

Sears isn't the first retailer to launch in Second Life. Circuit City has a presence as does Dell. This is a great way to capture the hearts and minds of geeks in the community. However, if it's going to really take off Second Life needs to get easier to use and available through a Web browser or an IPTV rather than as a fairly complex download.

Tags: SecondLife, Sears

Social Media is No Mo

As we conclude 2006 and head into the new year it is my conviction that the phrase "social media" is moot.

Social media, according to Wikipedia, includes "the online tools and platforms that people use to share opinions, insights, experiences and perspectives with each other." This includes blogs, message boards, podcasts, wikis, vlogs and so on. For the last few years this was all considered related to, but separate from mainstream media. That point of differentiation is now gone.

In 2006 all media went social. Pretty much every newspaper, TV network and publication has wholeheartedly embraced these technologies. Newspapers have comments, RSS feeds, blogs, wikis and other forms of two-way communications. TV networks have a presence in Second Life and more. The lines have blurred. Even some of the marketers themselves are producing content that could be called "media."

The changes in communications go deeper, however. The media formerly called mainstream also communicates in a far more conversational tone that it did before -- one we use.

Meanwhile, the barriers to becoming a member of the fourth estate have been obliterated by these very same technologies. Look at Robert Scoble's writing this week as he tags along with John Edwards on the campaign trail.

So as we roll into 2007, it's fair to say that "social media" as a separate entity is dead. This will only accelerate as individual publishers add employees and build networks of sites that compete with the big boys. Need proof? Look at what Om Malik and Michael Arrington accomplished this year.

There's no point in differentiating any more. The story that Dan Gillmor chronicled in his landmark 2004 book We the Media has only accelerated. We are all one and it's silly to classify us into two different species.

Tags: socialmedia, media, 2007

Watch Web Vids on Your HDTV

You don't need to wait for Apple's ITV to watch web videos on your HDTV. SofaTube will optimize videos from YouTube and other video sharing sites for viewing on the big screen. The catch is you need to have your PC or Mac hooked up to your TV. (Via Search Engine Journal)