Micro Persuasion

Search Engine Visibility and PR - An Edelman Digital White Paper

Regular readers here know that in addition to focusing on emerging technologies, I also have long taken an interest in how search engines are evolving. Fundamentally, I believe that Google is media and also every brand's home page. Therefore, search engine visibility (and all of the reputational concerns that go with it) are front and center an opportunity for the public relations industry to shine.

With this in mind, my colleagues and I have co-authored a 13-page position paper on Search Engine Visibility. We released it to our clients last month but now we are making it available to the public today at the Edelman New Media Academic Summit in Washington. You can download it here (PDF). It's also embedded below. This is the second in a series - the first is here.

In the paper we posit that today there are two primary search visibility tactics: Paid Search (more widely known as search engine marketing - SEM) and Optimized Search (e.g. SEO). Both of these are generally not managed by public relations professionals.

Now, however, there are two new disciplines emerging. And both sit squarely in the public relations professional's domain...

• Reputational Search - The premise and promise of Reputational Search is that any company, NGO or brand can apply a search mindset to tried-and-true PR tactics and, in the process, influence the search results around certain keywords.

• Social Search - With Google and competitors increasingly prioritizing social content from Flickr, blogs, Twitter and others in result pages, it is imperative that brands build out "embassies" in all relevant networks – places where employees work to serve the interests of the community, as well as their company.

If you read the paper you will see that we are convinced that search engines for the foreseeable future will have a critical impact on how brands are perceived - far more so than any single social network site, which tend to come and go. As always, we're interested in your views. Please share them below or on Twitter or Friendfeed.

Open publication - Free publishing - More steve rubel

GigaOm Network Launches Syndicated Research Arm

Years ago I had a chance to work with Alan Meckler, founder of what was then Mecklermedia, now WebMediaBrands. Alan was one of the early pioneers of online media. Back then he developed a media business that was grounded in four pillars: print, online, research and events. It's a model many B2B media companies have followed since.

A lot has changed in 15 years. The Internet has unleashed the expertise that exists within us and in the process completely democratized media. Some things never change, however, and some bloggers are following the same course Alan did (without the print part, of course and at a far lower cost). There's no reason why they shouldn't.

The GigaOm Network is one such group. They already have a robust network of sites and events. Now, Om informed me last night that they are launching a subscription-only research arm today called GigaOm Pro. At an introductory subscription price of $79 it's a steal. The unit will rely on all-star, free-agent analysts and cover clean tech, infrastructure, "the Connected Consumer" and mobile. A subscription includes ton of original weekly content as well as reports.

When I asked Om Malik about his new venture last night and he made it clear that he is not trying to take on Forrester Research or financial analysts. Rather, he is trying to carve out his own niche. He feels (and I agree) that he can assemble a team of experts from within his network and the commons that creates a compelling value proposition for the technology industry.

Despite what Om says, however, I feel that people who are spending on research will make choices. A $79 offering might be more than suitable for many more casual buyers and begin to disrupt the syndicated research market if it proves successful.

Visits to Twitter Search Soar, Indicating Social Search Has Arrived

Twitter's growth over the last several months has been well chronicled. But there's another story line here that's even more interesting - visits to Twitter Search are also soaring.

According to data from Compete.com visits to the Twitter search page grew more than 400% in the last six months. This sub-domain alone recorded 2.7M unique visitors in April, up from just shy of 536,000 in October. Even more remarkable, traffic to the site, which is tucked away, grew 24% in April.

The data closely mirrors the overall growth of Twitter, which saw unique visitors increase from 3.4M in October to 19.4M in April. However, the search subdomain seems to be following its own trend line.

There's more. Now that Twitter has added search functionality into the main interface, the compete.com data doesn't account for the full spectrum of users that might be executing queries off the main page. In addition, the data doesn't accurately account for the power users who are searching Twitter from inside clients like Seesmic Desktop, Tweetdeck or Tweetie.

However, I think there's something fundamentally new that's going on here: more technically savvy users (and one would assume this includes journalists) are searching Twitter for information. Presumably this is in a tiny way eroding searches from Google. Mark Cuban, for example, is one who is getting more traffic to his blog from Twitter and Facebook than Google.

For over a year now I have been saying that social search could be disruptive to Google. It seems now that, for some, habits are beginning to shift. I know that on Easter Sunday when I wanted to find out if my local Walmart store was open (Walmart is an Edelman client), Twitter Search was the fastest way to find out.

As long as it can maintain its community, search will remain pivotal to Twitter's future and probably one of the first places it will monetize. But the bigger story here is that some users are clearly getting value out of searching social content. This space will only get more interesting once Facebook gets serious about search and Google races to transform itself into more of a live search engine, rather than a static one.

Also, let's not forget that right Friendfeed is the king of social search. It lets you do something no one else can - search just your friends' content. That's a big deal.

Technorati Tags:
Twitter, Social Search, Facebook, Friendfeed

Social Networking Demographics: Boomers Jump In, Gen Y Plateaus

There's a common misperception out there that all of the blogging, Twittering and Facebooking is being done by twenty and thirty-somethings. That, in fact, turns out not to be true. Baby Boomers (those born 1946-1964) are the fastest growing users of social networking sites and are also increasingly reading blogs too. Meanwhile, Gen Y interest in these services has plateaued. This all according to the latest Consumer Electronics Usage Survey from Accenture.

According to the study, baby boomers...

• Increased reading blogs and listening to podcasts by 67 percent year over year; nearly 80 times faster than Gen Y (1 percent)
• Posted a 59 percent increase in using social networking sites—more than 30 times faster than Gen Y (2 percent)
• Increased watching/posting videos on the Internet by 35 percent—while Gen Y usage decreased slightly (-2 percent)
• Accelerated playing video games on the go via mobile devices by 52 percent— 20 times faster than Gen Y (2 percent)
• Increased listening to music on an iPod or other portable music player by 49 percent—more than four times faster than Gen Y (12 percent)

Meanwhile, Gen Y...

• Participation slipped in virtual worlds from 23 percent to 19 percent
• Consumed no more video online than they did last year
• Blogged and contributed to wikis less (it's down from 35 to 33 percent)

The baby boomer results don't surprise me. What does jump out at me is how the most technologically savvy generation we have seen to date is slowing their adoption. Could they be suffering from social fatigue or do they have enough technology in their lives already? Perhaps they are returning toward more face-to-face venues, which anecdotally, I have heard. It will be interesting to see how this progresses next year.

Additional data from the latest Accenture report is summarized here from TWICE.

Five Digital Trends to Watch for 2009

This has also been cross-posted on the Edelman Digital blog.

In my role as Director of Insights for Edelman Digital I am writing monthly white papers for clients on key trends. Sometimes we will release these broadly. For the first one, I drew on members of the Edelman team, as well as third party research, to highlight five digital trends to watch for 2009. Each includes specific recommended actions.

Even though the economy is slowing, all signs show that audiences are still spending a lot more time on the web. Marketers need to invest to meet them there. However, what's changed today they are smarter about where they focus their time, dollars and energy. Experimentation is giving way to tactics that deliver ROI. These include public engagement, search and social networking — three themes that connect the major macro trends.

There are five trends covered in this white paper...

Satisfaction Guaranteed - Customer care and PR are blending as consumers use social media to demand service

Media Reforestation -  The media is in a constant state of reinvention as it transitions from atoms to bits

Less is the New More - Overload takes its toll. Gorging on media is out. Selective ignorance and friends as filters are in

Corporate All-Stars - Workers flock to social media to build their personal brands, yet offer employers an effective and credible way to market in the downturn

The Power of Pull -  Where push once ruled, it’s now equally important to create digital content that people discover through search

You can download the full paper here(PDF) or simply browse or read it below. I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Research Business & Legal marketing media

Graph Your Tweets with Twitter Charts

Over the last year or so I have become addicted to data visualization and mashup tools. Every day it seems like there's a new one to explore. My current favorite remains PageAddict. Using the Firefox plug-in I have been able to reduce my time on social networks and increase my use of productivity apps. Now I have a new one that's equally revealing.

Twitter Charts is a Yahoo Pipes/Google Charts mashup that takes a user's tweets and plots them on timeline by day of the week and by hour. It's a great way to see just how active a user is on Twitter and when. In addition, it also gives you a sense for how engaged an individual user is in the conversation by revealing the portion of tweets that are replies.

To give you a sense for the differences between Twitter users below are two graphs. The first plots my tweets. The second graphs my friend Robert Scoble's tweets. As you can see there's quite a difference in how we use Twitter. Additional information on Twitter Charts can be found here. (Via Twitterholics)

Blogging Journalists Tuned In, Survey Finds

Blogs.com reports on a survey of blogging journalists...

Blogging journalists get "story leads from comments on the blog or through private communication initiated via the blog," have "a clearer perception of audience needs and interests as a result of comments and visitor statistics" and find that "the previous process of 'moving on' to the next big story and forgetting about the old one no longer applies" since blogging allows for updates and corrections.

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RSS Adoption at 11% and it May Be Peaking, Forrester Says

Forrester Research today published a new report on the state of RSS. In short, while there are bright spots, it does not paint the picture of a technology that's going mainstream anytime soon.

On a positive note, the resarch entitled What's Holding RSS Back?, says that nearly half of marketers have moved to add feeds to their web sites. Further, RSS adoption among consumers is at 11% up from just 2% of users three years ago. RSS feeds usage is more dominant among men.

Here's the kicker, though. That might be all she wrote for RSS' growth track.

According to the research, of the 89% of those who don't use feeds only 17% say they're interested in using them. In fact Forrester spends much of the report helping marketers better explain the benefits of RSS to their customers. "Unless marketers make a move to hook them — and try to convert their apathetic counterparts — RSS will never be more than a niche technology," the analysts (who include Jeremiah Owyang) wrote.

Lord knows, as someone who spends three hours a day in Google Reader, I am a giant evangelist for RSS. But I am also a realist. Feeds are way way too geeky for most and the benefit does not outweigh the learning curve. So I think RSS has peaked.

Still, while feed adoption may have crested the idea of online opt-in communications is just getting going. The Facebook newsfeed, Twitter and Friendfeed are perfect examples of opt-in vehichles that bring content you care about to you. In each case, you're total in control. You can unsubscribe from individuals or groups and tailor the stream so that what you want finds you.

RSS is only one form of opt-in communications. The potential is bigger when you look more broadly to social networking. This larger promise still holds and as the technologies become more invisible the newsfeed could even one day subsume RSS.

Page Rank is the Ultimate Measure of Online Influence

Friends, Romans, countrymen, followers, page views, in-bound links, share of voice, unique visitors and subscribers. These are just some of the more common ways serious content creators (and those who hope to reach them) measure online influence. However there are big flaws in all of these metrics.

Followers and/or RSS subscribers are nice to count. But given the Attention Crash, it's a good bet that many of these people aren't as engaged with your content as you might hope. For example, I follow several hundred people on Friendfeed but I only see a fraction of their stuff because I don't have time to actively read or even scan.

Unique visitors and page views - which I said was dying back in 2006 and is dead as far as I am concerned - are also largely empty numbers. Lots of people visit my blog. However, many of them arrive via Google, the web's version of Ellis Island. And then they're gone.

After thinking about this a lot I have reached the conclusion that Google Page Rank is the ultimate way to measure online influence. It's far from perfect. However, several other metric candidates I addressed in February 2007 haven't panned out. There are three reasons why Google Page Rank rules.

1) Page Rank is something you earn by producing high quality content that people link to - or what John Bell describes as socially connected

2) It enables you to influence people on the Internet's biggest stage - Google - and just as people are searching for the topics you are knowledgeable about. This means it amplifies your influence because the press start at search engines when researching stories

3) Finally, Page Rank is channel agnostic and takes the entire online ecosystem into account. It judges you based on links from all kinds of sources, not just people who live in the same fish tank. In other words, it goes beyond people who hang out on Twitter who love people who Tweet or bloggers who link to other bloggers, etc. It eschews the echo chamber

PageRank takes time to earn. There are no shortcuts. Google is democratic and rewards professionals and amateurs equally if they do their job well. Create high quality content that earns links from other quality sources and, over time, your Google Page Rank grows as does your influence and responsibility.

(Yes, I did say responsibility. My blog has a Page Rank of 7. If I were to actively blog about Edelman's clients, it could alter Google results and thus their reputation. That wouldn't be ethical now would it?)

Many bloggers monitor their Google Page Rank. The AdAge Power 150 and the Healthcare 100 lists allow you to sort bloggers this way. But Page Rank influence is not limited to blogs.

Did you know that individual identities on social networks like Friendfeed and Twitter have Page Ranks that are independent of the main site itself? Its; true. Someone new on Twitter has a Page Rank of zero. While those who have been on the site longer have a higher rank. The same goes for Friendfeed where I have a Page Rank of 4 but Robert Scoble has a 6.

It would be interesting to take lists like the Twitterholic 100 or the FFHolic 100, both of which rank influencers based on followers, and run them through a Page Rank checker. While followers and Page Rank are probably linked I wonder if some interesting anomalies might pop up in the process. (If you want to check the Page Rank for any site you can use this bookmarket. However, note that results can vary based on the tool you use to check.)

Until someone comes up with a better metric, Page Rank to me is the ultimate measure of online influence. Do you agree?

The World's Clicks Don't Always Tell the Truth

The following is also my column in next week's AdAge...

The dirty little secret in the blogosphere is that bloggers get free books - and lots of them. Often they show up without anyone asking. Most of the ones on Web 2.0 or the Internet just aren't that good or are woefully outdated by the time they hit your Kindle.

Still, my Andy Rooney moment aside, there are two in this fall's crop has a stats geek like me really excited. They deserve a spot on your shelf - but with an important caveat.

The first is The Numerati by BusinessWeek reporter Stephen Baker. In the book Baker details how companies are hiring math geeks to dissect and make sense of mountains of data to spot everything from consumer patterns to future terrorists. An entire chapter is dedicated to discussing how savvy marketers are using data modeling to dig through reams of blog chatter in search of insights. Baker and his publisher, Houghton Mifflin, are even running a behavioral targeting campaign to underscore the value of studying ad clicks.

Click by Hitwise's Bill Tancer tackles the same theme but from a singular perspective - search data. Tancer, who makes a living selling insights to major marketers, leverages Hitwise's search engine data from ISPs and its panel to provide perspectives on what people Google for and why. Like Baker, the anecdotes range from the general to the esoteric. Click even features a riveting chapter on pills, porn and casinos. So, be sure to cuddle this book tightly in bed.

In the web era, data, not content, nor community is king. The companies and individuals who can make the most sense of our footprints and place strategic bets are the ones who will succeed. Michael Lewis illustrated this wonderfully in his 2003 book Moneyball.

However, data should not be relied upon exclusively. It can be wrong. At the Web 2.0 Conference last October Tancer predicted that KeepVid and Veoh would be two of the next hot sites. A year later, according to Google Trends, traffic to both is flat.

Data brings power but also a danger that marketers will over rely on clicks and ignore their intuition; knowledge gleaned from old school face-to-face interactions like focus groups, secret shopper visits and years of experience. Hook the traditional with the new and you're unbeatable.

Lifestream Links

Over the last few months I have been blogging a lot less than I really would like to. I have so much I want to say here and often so little time to write thoughtful essays. There are weeks I get on blogging kick. Last week was one. Then there are times where it's nearly impossible to bang out quality posts with meetings, travel and client work.

That said, I am very active online every day and especially generous in sharing links on Twitter and Friendfeed - even when all I am toting is my iPhone. So if you're not subscribed to my lifestream feed, you might want switch to since that's where I am putting all the good stuff. Here's a sample from tonight ...

• Quarkbase is an interesting site that aims to tell you "everything about a web site." So far most of the data they offer is available elsewhere. However the presentation is amazing
• Twitter Grader offers rich data on Twitter users by handle and ranks them. Fun for egos everywhere
• ABC News' 20/20 this week looks at what people search for - porn and celebrities
• Facebook gets closer to Friendfeed with the addition of a "live feed" that auto-refreshes all of your friends' items. I feel that Friendfeed is essentially becoming Facebook for geeks (of which I am one)
• Steve Broback is putting all of the free blog search engines through their paces
• Accuweather is now on Twitter

Measure Traffic with the Google Web Site Trends Bookmarklet

Google yesterday added a significant feature to Google Trends. You can now enter in URLs and get back rather rich site traffic data. Barry Schwartz has a great rundown. I will have more to say about this shortly as I play with it over the weekend. However, in the meantime, I wanted to share this bookmarklet I created.

All you need to do is drag the link below to your bookmarks. If you're on a web site and you want to know its traffic is, just hit the link and if it's big enough to be in the Google Trends database, you will get back data.

Google Web Site Trends This!

The Hyperconnected vs. 84% of Everyone Else on Earth

Two studies that crossed my screen tonight here in London point to a widening digital divide. I am not referring to the gap between those who are online and everyone else. The gulf I am addressing here is between those who are fully engaged with the web and, well, Earth.

The first piece of research from Parks Associates (via Dwight Silverman and CNET) reveals that one-fifth of all U.S. heads-of-household have never used e-mail. Based on the conversations I had in Europe this past week, this is even more pronounced outside the US where high mobile penetration makes things a bit more complicated to track.

Meanwhile, a separate white paper from IDC/Nortel (via Jackie Huba) - this one spanning 17 countries - found that 16% of the information workforce is already "Hyperconnected" and that another 36% will be joining us soon. Definitely download the PDF. It's an interesting read.

Source: IDC/Nortel White Paper - The Hyperconnected: Here They Come!

All of this data is consistent with what Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff talk about extensively in their new book, Groundswell. If you play with Forrester's Technographic profile tool, you can zero in on just how wide the divide is within your target audience. They peg 52% of the US online population as largely passive.

Net, this leaves me convinced that despite all of the buzz around the growth of new media and/or digital advertising, neither will replace existing modalities for some time to come. Yes, Scoble, that's why Google News still rules. Digital media is going to be additive in the near to medium term. However, in a decade - perhaps sooner, perhaps later - it will be a different story.

The data bodes well for businesses like the TV nets that live off the 30-second spot. Some have written the :30 off for dead. However, that's a bit premature.

The challenge for traditional media companies and the advertising ecosystem that support them is that static advertising is no longer a growth businesses. This will become particularly true as the number of Hyperconnected skyrocket. However, for now, old still co-exists with new.

The takeaway for marketers is to utilize all of the relevant venues/tactics as part of a comprehensive marketing strategy (the same goes for PR). Ignoring something because it's old school doesn't always make sense.

Even if Twitter is Just a Geek Haven, It's Still Very Influential

There's been an interesting discussion over the last few days about Twitter's reach. WSJ reporter Kara Swisher surveyed her dinner party and found out that no one there uses the micro-blogging site. Meanwhile Gina Trapani on Lifehacker is running a survey asking if Web 2.0 benefits only the tech elite.

Now let's look at the data. According to figures just out from Hitwise, Twitter is the 439th largest social networking site and 4309 overall. To be sure, growth is booming. But the site is still niche.

So all of the signs generally point the same way. Most of the social networking and online communities are definitely geek havens. MySpace, Facebook and YoutTube are three that have gone mainstream. So does that mean these smaller sites, like Twitter, are not worthy of a brand's time? Hardly.

Geeks are by far more influential than any other online contingency, except the big media. Geeks pass the puck from Twitter to blogs back to Twitter. Eventually it hits Techmeme, Saul Hansell at the Times takes notice and then the whole world knows.

That's why smart companies like JetBlue and Zappos are legitimately engaging on Twitter. It's becoming a front line for customer service. At a minimum, every consumer facing company should be monitoring the chatter. Even better, participating can cut problems off at the pass or even better foster evangelists. The numbers may never tell this story. For more, see Chris WInfield's mini case study.

Study: A Billion Dollars in Internet Advertising is Wasted

Advertisers continue to plow a ton of money into Internet advertising, even in the face of an recessionary environment. At the Forbes Online Brand Summit this weekend, Citi projected 20% year over year growth. eMarketer is calling for a 23% increase.

Search remains the big daddy. According to eMakreter it will account for 40% of the $25 billion that marketers will spend online this year. Right behind it at 21% (or $5.1 billion) is display advertising. However, according to a new study, a giant percentage of these ads are wasted because they fall below "the fold"

The Eyetools/MarketingSherpa eye tracking study, released last week, found that about 60% of web site visitors see the ads that are 100% visible and "above the fold." Below the fold - e.g. the part of a web page where users are required to scroll - the situation is grim. These ads are visible to roughly 70% of web users, but only about 25% actually see those ads.

Let's do some back of the envelope math here. Assuming that all of the above data is accurate and that 50% of display ad impressions fall below the fold (this is a conservative guess - it might be significantly higher) that means that nearly a billion dollars in online advertising - $937M based on these calculations - is below the fold and ignored by 75% of web users.

The situation is actually be a lot worse when you factor in trust. A Nielsen study released late last year found that only 26% of consumers trust banner ads. So even if your display ads are visible and seen, they're not trusted by the vast majority of the public. That aint good news.

The conventional wisdom is that online display ads are good for branding. Well, this appears to be a myth for lots of impressions. Now factor in that they also continue to be a disaster when it comes to direct response.

This is a train wreck waiting to happen. Scoble called it back in 2006. And it further illustrates that marketers are polluting the web.

What this means - especially in this climate - is that at least $1B of what's spent on online advertising is completely wasted and is unsustainable. Advertisers are going to eventually wake up and recognize that unless it's a highly visible placement, banners get you largely nowhere.

Trust in Peers Trumps the "A-List," Study Finds

There's an ongoing debate online and in marketing circles as well over who "matters": the super node influencers or basically anyone that a particular peer group looks to for information, entertainment, inspiration and more.

This meme got kicked around in the 'sphere a few weeks back when Duncan Watts released some research that contradicts Malcolm Gladwell's theory outlined in The Tipping Point. Today, however, there's new data that to me may just reveal that Watts is right. The key factor, once again, all comes down to trust. This comes as more of the action shifts to micro communities like Twitter or Friendfed and the quality of blog content, some say, slides downhill.

Mediapost reports that a new study from Pollara found that people who engage in social networks and communities put far more trust in friends and family who are online than in popular bloggers, or strangers with 10,000 MySpace "friends." Nearly 80% said they were very or somewhat more likely to consider buying products recommended by real-world friends and family, while only 23% reported being very or somewhat likely to consider a product pushed by "well-known bloggers."

This new batch of data largely backs up what my employer's Edelman Trust Barometer found earlier this year. Some 58% of opinion elites 35-64 in 18 countries said they trust "a person like me." Meanwhile, only 14% trust bloggers - a figure that has largely remained flat since 2006. (See chart below from our latest study.)

Source: 2008 Edelman Trust Barometer

On a similar thread, Louis Gray, who's blog by the way is amazing, crunched some numbers and he found that the top tech blogs extended their reach in feed subscribers as well as on the TechMeme leaderboard. That may be true, but who cares?

The question of targeting super nodes vs. smaller groups is all coming down to trust. While the marketplace - both marketers and publishers - continue to focus on reach, they are missing the big picture. Trust is by far a more important metric, one that clearly rules when it comes to influence.

Open Collaboration and the Future of Public Relations

Jonny Bentwood, my colleague in the UK, has published a very thorough and provocative white paper on how to potentially define and measure "influence." The white paper was the byproduct of a meeting we held in New York with some of the industry's deepest thinkers. You can download it as a PDF, or simply peruse each section in HTML.

As Jonny says, this is not a fait accompli but a work in progress. You responded in kind. In the week since its release, many of you added valuable thoughts that will shape ours going forward. It's my hope that we can synthesize this discussion into applicable ideas we can incorporate in Edelman programs.

The release of this white paper, in a simplistic sense, illustrates what the web does best. It allows millions of connected citizens to come together as a global brain to solve problems, shape new ideas and above all spur collaborative action. The book Wikinomics, which I highly recommend, offers a lot of great examples and case studies. Doc Searls tackles a similar theme.

New communication technologies and channels grab all the headlines. However, what's far more important and meaningful (and a lot less ballyhooed) is how the web is allowing companies and stakeholders to produce outcomes that are to everyone's benefit. Dell's evolution over the past year is one great example.

That said, public relations is generally perceived as a communications discipline. We still put out lots of press releases and generate media coverage. But that's rapidly changing as the web allows us to increasingly facilitate open collaboration between a company and its customers. Richard Edelman, our CEO, has been at the forefront of this discussion. He advocates that companies take on big issues. And that's exactly what our agency is doing through initiatives like Good Purpose.

So does that mean media relations goes away in favor of new, more open approaches? Hardly. As Jonny and I wrote in the white paper's conclusion, public relations is flexible enough to cover it all. Arguably, PR programs can span two different continua. They can included tactics that are closed or open while being intended to spur communication or collaboration. The result is four quadrants, which mix together the old and the new....

1) Controlled Communication: One-way tactics such as TV advertising, online advertising and media relations that are great for branding and visibility, but are seldom collaborative. What's old still works.

2) Open Communication: Online initiatives, such as viral videos, that are designed to generate discussion, but not necessarily produce a shared outcome. Most corporate blogs are often up in this quadrant. The more collaborative blogs move "right"

3) Controlled Collaboration: Programs that facilitate participation but are more controlled, for example numerous efforts to solicit consumer generated ads

4) Open Collaboration: Win-win initiatives that open a dialogue toward reaching a broader goal. The American Express Member's Project is a great example.

What are your thoughts on this model? I'd be interested in your ideas on how this might be implemented in programs and measured - as well as any case studies on the right side quadrants. It's not perfect and it's theory. Help us move it into action.

Charting 2007's Three Big Web 2.0 Trends

"The best thing about the future is that it only comes one day at a time." - Abraham Lincoln

Thinking about the future is fun. It's what I am paid to do. However, I never contemplate the days ahead without the context of the past. After all, the future is always grounded in history. That's why I have become a heavy user of Google Trends.

The tool is closest thing we have to a global rear-view mirror. Blog search and conversation charts only go so far. They capture what a small subset of the most vocal, tech-savvy users are saying. Search engines, on the other hand, show us what's on everyone's mind - including the giant underwater iceberg of silent users.

Like 2006, this was a big year for Web 2.0. Here are Google Trends charts I pulled looking at three broad 2007 Web 2.0 trends, along with my comments. I chose to focus here on broad trends, as opposed to the gyrations of individual sites, which always change with fickle users. (Micro blogging is an exception because the term is rarely used so I looked at Twitter instead.)

All of the data is global in scope and only as current as mid-December. Of course, all of this is just directional. Ideally, it would be great to cross-reference all of this with other sources, like Compete.com. Still, they do provide perspective.

Trend I: Social Networking

* Data: Searches for social networking and news volume both doubled in 2007. However, more recently, the volume has started to show some signs of weakness. Meanwhile, geographically, interest in social networking from India and Singapore is skyrocketing. Search volume for individual sites, like Facebook, appear to track the broader meme.

* Insight: Social networking is evolving from a group of sites into several competing platforms that power thousands of sites. Eventually, we won't think of social networks as sites but as a feature. This data might just be the first sign of such a progression.

Trend II: Micro Blogging

* Data: Micro blogging doesn't register on Google Trends, so I chose to compare Twitter and blogging (as opposed to "blogs" which is a much broader term). What's fascinating here is that searches for Twitter surpassed for "blogging" in April and never looked back. Meanwhile, news volume for the two are neck and neck. Twitter is particularly strong in Japan. That said, interest in micro blogging has dropped off dramatically this (nearly 50% off their peak in the spring).

* Insight: Blogging is work and the payoff (emotional or monetary) can be hard to come by, particularly for those of us who want to see a rapid return on our investment in time. Meanwhile, personal publishing is evolving because of the increasing sophistication of mobile devices and the Attention Crash. Micro blogging fosters connection with less work all while working well with mobile devices. Blogging remains important, however, as the traditional press rapidly embraced blogging, it has encouraged individual publishers to find new ways to spread their influence.

Trend III:: Web Applications

* Data: Google searches for web apps doubled in the second half of the year. That said they are dwarfed by stalwarts like Microsoft Office or Apple's iWork suite. Interest in Google Docs has flattened since they rolled out their presentation application. The US leads the way in web based applications.

* Insight: The search data seems to reflect what others have said - that web applications are not on most people's radar. This data is consistent with what Microsoft and Apple have said - people like their desktop apps. Web applications are in their infancy. It should be interesting to see if they will remain a niche category in the years ahead. The lack of the ubiquitous connectivity could be a major stumbling block.

Study: 25% of Entertainment Will Be Created by Peer Groups

A fascinating new study from Nokia predicts that by 2012 a quarter of all entertainment will be created, edited and shared within peer groups rather than coming out of traditional media.

What's unclear in my mind is where the boundaries are. In other words, what constitute peer content vs. pro content when the lines increasingly blur. Still, this is a big number and there's a lot of money at stake here to those who can create sustainable platforms that enable it all while monetizing.

To that point, TV Week conducted an analysis and found that while it's easy to get attention for your work, making money is a tougher climb. This might keep the figure from going higher than 25%.

Analysis: Why Some Web 2.0 Sites Will Never Attract Big Ad Dollars

Accountability - e.g. a company's return on investment in advertising - is an evergreen topic in the marketing community. Naturally, when it comes to the emerging sphere of Web 2.0 sites, advertisers want to sleep easy knowing that their money is generating a return. So with US ad spending on social networks expected to reach $2.5 billion by 2011, this is a good time to poke at conventional wisdom with hard data. It's not pretty.

Based on a informal analysis, my belief is that many online communities, bloggers, social networks will never attract a critical mass of advertisers because they are not set up properly to attract visitors who have a commercial intent to buy products and services. Online media is not sold this way now, but I bet it will be in the very near future.

Today, most advertisers size up community sites, blogs and social networks using traditional media buying models - namely, reach and frequency. Unfortunately, the reality is that many Web 2.0 sites, can't deliver marketers the numbers they want because of the effect of Long Tail. It's simple supply and demand economics at work. This is why efforts like the one announced by comScore and Federated Media are fundamentally flawed.

This week in New York I am participating in an all-day roundtable discussion about how to measure the impact of online influence. Edelman, my employer, is convening some of the industry's leading thinkers on this subject. It is my hope - and our challenge - to come up with new ways to measure the potential the web has on influencing purchases. Quantifying eyeballs is not the answer. We need new thinking.

My personal conviction - one that I plan to table - is that search should be the most important driver for how advertisers size up the influence of different community sites and the individuals who make them up. The problem is no one is thinking this way. Everyone is overlooking the organic impact of Web 2.0 on product-related searches in favor of quick and dirty old school metrics.

Microsoft AdCenter Labs has some demonstration technology that illustrates this vividly. (Microsoft is an Edelman client.) Their Online Commercial Intent tool uses terabytes of search data to calculate the likelihood of a web site to attract buyers.

I took a handful of different URLs and ran them through the Microsoft tool. To give you a sense of a benchmark, Amazon.com has 52% purchase intent. Here are my results (numbers are rounded) ....

Consumerist - 49% of visitors have a commercial intent
Gizmodo - 47%
Autoblog.com - 45%
Treehugger - 41%
Techmeme - 41%
Engadget - 40%
Gridskipper - 38%
YouTube - 38%
TechCrunch.com - 37%
digg.com - 34%
del.icio.us - 29%
PerezHilton.com - 27%
Wikipedia - 14%
Flickr - 14%
Facebook - 10%
Twitter - 5%

While a lot more analysis is needed, as you can see a lot of sites don't fare particularly well. They're set up to attract eyeballs, but perhaps - purely from an economic sense - not necessarily the right ones. Eventually ad spending will recede and marketers will place a greater focus on ROI. Purchase intent and search will play a key role. If you want to attract advertisers, start conveying that you attract buyers and make sure you are delivering on that promise.