Micro Persuasion

Even if Twitter is Just a Geek Haven, It's Still Very Influential

There's been an interesting discussion over the last few days about Twitter's reach. WSJ reporter Kara Swisher surveyed her dinner party and found out that no one there uses the micro-blogging site. Meanwhile Gina Trapani on Lifehacker is running a survey asking if Web 2.0 benefits only the tech elite.

Now let's look at the data. According to figures just out from Hitwise, Twitter is the 439th largest social networking site and 4309 overall. To be sure, growth is booming. But the site is still niche.

So all of the signs generally point the same way. Most of the social networking and online communities are definitely geek havens. MySpace, Facebook and YoutTube are three that have gone mainstream. So does that mean these smaller sites, like Twitter, are not worthy of a brand's time? Hardly.

Geeks are by far more influential than any other online contingency, except the big media. Geeks pass the puck from Twitter to blogs back to Twitter. Eventually it hits Techmeme, Saul Hansell at the Times takes notice and then the whole world knows.

That's why smart companies like JetBlue and Zappos are legitimately engaging on Twitter. It's becoming a front line for customer service. At a minimum, every consumer facing company should be monitoring the chatter. Even better, participating can cut problems off at the pass or even better foster evangelists. The numbers may never tell this story. For more, see Chris WInfield's mini case study.

2008 Digital Trends Part II: Living Room 2.0

Entertainment, Mac Fan Version by Horrortaxi

This is the second in a series of posts on the big digital trends to watch in 2008. Part I is here.

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For much of the 20th Century, the living room was our virtual social hub - a tangential connection to the broader world around us. The experiences, however, were never really social. However, they felt that way because we all experienced the same events from the same spot in our homes at precisely the same time.

Let's call this era Living Room 1.0. It was marked by dates like December 8, 1941 when 81 million of us flocked to the living room to get closer to the radio to hear FDR's famous "Infamy speech." Years later, as television began to dominate, it was where we "participated" in major global events, such as the Challenger Disaster, the Thrilla in Manila or Neil Armstrong's first steps on the moon. The living room kindles strong memories (both positive and negative) for anyone 30 or older. And while the technology changed from radio to TVs and later video games, the experiences were really universal.

In the broadband era, however, the living room appears to have lost relevance. Today, the web is where we turn connect with others - and the connections are real, not imagined.

Consider, for example, the big news this week - the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Many of us I bet, unlike days of old, did not participate in this global event from our living rooms. Rather, we did so in real-time with peers on Twitter via a gaggle of connected devices that really can be anywhere - bedrooms, offices, home offices or, above all, our pockets. (Consider too that Bhutto's son and heir apparent is a Facebook user.)

So is the living room as a social hub dying? Hardly. It's quietly undergoing a revival - dare we call it Living Room 2.0. The revolution started with the advent of HDTV, which is now in 13% of US homes and growing - slowly. However, the real magic happens when we connect Internet-enabled devices and services to those sets. Suddenly, the living room becomes social again because it bridges our offline connections (the family) to our online friends around the world.

Right now it's largely the early adopters who are benefiting from the revival of the living room as a social hub. There are very few Robert Scobles of the world who connect Mac Minis to 50" TVs so they can use Dave Winer's Flickr Fan to view photos of their friends in glorious hi-def. This will change, however, as the devices get simpler, cheaper and the benefits are more pronounced.

For example, one of the biggest Living Room 2.0 successes is arguably XBox Live, which is now becoming a social network. (Edelman handles all XBox PR for Microsoft.) They won't be alone. By the end of 2008 every device that already has a place in an home theater set-up will connect not only to the web but, increasingly, to existing social networking platforms like OpenSocial, MySpace, Facebook and others. This means that devices like the Wii, Slingbox, Vudu, TiVo, Apple TV or even your trusty digital cable set-top box will start to allow you to connect with the rest of the world online. And then it will become more mainstream.

So don't reminisce about the days of old when we gathered around the TV or radio and felt a sense of connection to the world at large. What's old is new again. This time your living room is going to get a lot more crowded. Get ready to invite the world over because Living Room 2.0 is going mainstream in 2008.

Wither Blogging? Not Yet, But Perhaps Soon

Earlier this week we chatted - here and on Twitter - about Shiny Object Syndrome (SOS). Our appetite for new technologies and channels is certainly insatiable, but it points to a larger trend. Perhaps we're in search of a new format (or formats) to replace the almighty blog.

What, wither blogging? Not quite. I believe blogs remain extremely powerful and I plan to be a multi-format contributor. Still, a perfect storm is brewing that could one day mark the decline of the long form blog as we know and love it today.  BL Ochman and Michael Tangeman are two that are pondering the same trend.

Let's take a closer look at what's happening. There are three big forces at bay here.

First, there's the Attention Crash. The demands on our time, be they work, family, shiny objects or all of the above loom large. This is changing our media habits. We crave what's pithy and fun. That's one reason why YouTube and widgets got hot.

Second, there's the proliferation of mobile Internet usage. I don't have the statistics handy but my gut is that the upper strata of Forrester's participation ladder includes many smart-phone owners.

As a reporter from MSNBC found, you can increasingly do a lot with these devices by themselves. On my next short trip I plan to leave my laptop at home in favor of my iPhone, especially if I can plan it all so that I am around wifi.

What this all means is that mobile platforms and devices encourages people to publish more often, but in a far shorter format.

Last but not least we have social networking. These sites and services make it easier for us to tune into "signals" - e.g. people and topics we care about - and tune out noise.

So what does this mean all for blogging? I imagine over time some erosion. We will unsubscribe from low quality blogs written by strangers that we truly don't have time for, in favor of tuning into friends and their mobile streams. Perhaps it's already happening.

Blogging on Twitter Today

I will be in line with the masses on Long Island waiting for the iPhone commeth. If you want to follow along, check out my Twitter page. If you're out my way and you'd like to come hang out you can find me here today. Email me and I will help you find me on line.

Facebook Edges Into Twitter Territory

Facebook rolled out a number of enhancements to the site. These include interface tweaks and more. However, the social network also added an online presence indicator tool. At least this was news to me. I It's a clear sign that Facebook plans to move into Twitter and Jaiku's micro/mobile blogging territory. They should. It's a good move for them. MG Siegler has more - news of a Twitter-esque Facebook timeline page.

Three Reasons Why Twitter Will Be Sold Soon

Who will buy Twitter? That should be on every user's mind because it's going to happen fast. Let's look at the facts first.

Fact #1: According to Technology Review, Twitter had 100,000 users at the end of March. More important, the community is doubling in size every three weeks. That kind of hockey stick growth is the stuff of legends. We're talking ICQ and YouTube territory. They're not going to sit on the shelf for long.

Fact #2: Twitter doesn't monetize its audience right now, but it's working on it. However, there's an important thought to consider. Many of the the most active people on Twitter are serious influencers. Further, a lot of them voluntarily receive messages via IM or, even better, on their mobile phones. That's every marketer's dream. If Obvious Corp, Twitter's parent company, can come up with a way to let the community opt into relevant mobile messages, it will be a cash cow. You can get a taste of this by checking out Woot on Twitter. Some 1700 people already opt-in to receiving deal notices via these channels.

Fact #3: Twitter is a cheap acquisition target right now. Yes, some question its staying power, but my gut is that the site will stick. Once Obvious Corp starts to monetize the community, the cost will go up. Now is the time to get in. Wait around and the price tag will go up.

Now, onto potential suitors. As you look across the landscape, Facebook is currently a great fit for Twitter. I wouldn't count out others like Yahoo or Google either.

Regardless of who wins the bidding war, make no mistake, change is coming. If Ev and Biz want to sell - which of course is an open question - Twitter will be eaten up real soon.

Twitter May Face Huge SMS Bills

In the good ol' United States of America, the receiver pays the SMS bill. In Canada, Australia, Europe and I believe much of Asia, the sender pays. For Twitter, this may add up fast.

If you spend some time on Twitervision it's obvious that Twitter is a global phenomenon. The site is popular around the world. Further, use mushroomed in the last few weeks.

So unless I am missing something, Twitter faces a massive SMS bill for all of the messages it has been sending out to users outside the US. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe because they are US based our rules apply. If you're an expert in this area, please weigh in.

Further, from the looks of it no part of the site is monetized right now. So add this all up and it could mean big trouble in Twitterville. Please do correct me if I have this wrong.

Twitterholic

You know you're addicted when you land on a list like this! Twitterholic is a fun resource and it has an RSS feed too. By the way, Twitter is very slow today. They need a five day outage and everyone getting mad about it. Then they'll become even more mainstream.

 

Live Twitter Search Engine Opens

From David Troy, the fine gentleman who brought you Twitter Maps, comes Twitter Search. It's a simple live search engine that pulls up results by time, as opposed to the archival one I created earlier. There are no feeds yet on the Twitter Search site, still it's a darn good solution for now as you can see below.

Twitter or Blog: The People Have Spoken

Thanks to everyone who left feedback to my last post. The comments were incredibly valuable.

Twitter, like the blogosphere, Facebook, YouTube and every other community, is going to develop its own ecosystem. Some will love it, others will hate it. Some of you will opt for grazing on my Twitter tweets, others will stick to reading my blog. As many have pointed out, one won't replace the other. The trick is to get them to augment each other just as my linkblog or Scoble's adds value to the mother ship.

So, basically I will do both. I haven't netted out how I will use Twitter. It will probably just become a moblog. I like the ability to pose questions and get back responses within minutes. That's not always the case with my blog. Further, I recognize that too much Twittering is bad. It floods people. Less is more is the overall mantra over there (at least that was the intent) and I may use it to just land thoughts. Time will tell.

However, you will all be happy to know this blog remains as is. I wouldn't let you down. But I reserve the right to experiment with Twitter and see where it goes. You can opt into one or both or neither. Your choice. (Oh and this is the last full post here on Twitter this week!)

Some Bail on Blogs in Favor of Twitter

Nick Wilson says he has unsubscribed from 100 blogs in favor of following their Twitter streams instead. That's a radical move right now, but as Twitter grows I bet we'll see more of it. I have heard this from a few folks. In the interest of presenting both sides of the issue, there's also a Twitter backlash too.

Twitter is getting me to re-think about where and how I publish. What I love about Twitter is that I can easily publish on the go. That's a boon since I tend to be very mobile. Of course I can do this with TypePad, but the format of blogging really doesn't lend itself well to posting a lot on the go. You would unsubscribe if I posted 15 messages a day here with 160 characters each.

Where I am thinking of going is this: I will micro blog very actively on Twitter (feed) throughout the day (and night) and I will use my blog to publish longer pieces. The link round-ups will continue as is. So, basically I am thinking of keeping MP at 80% of what it is now (in terms of volume of posts, quality remains the same), but for those of you who want more you can get it in my Twitter stream.

This is not set in stone yet. I want to see how Twitter shakes out. It could be a fad. Further, I am open to your ideas here. Thoughts?

Twitter, Human Attention and Moore's Law

Ahh, Moore's Law. Thank goodness for it. Moore's Law says the speed of chips and storage capacity double as they get shrink in physical size and get cheaper. Therefore, everyone benefits. This includes consumers/users and developers/producers (which frequently overlap in this new era). It gives rise to new services like Twitter.

However, there's a serious catch. Your brain does not obey Moore's Law. It's aided by it, for sure. But the truth is. there's only so much you can pack in there. That's why David Allen sells so many Getting Things Done books.

Typically, new media doesn't replace old. Media consumption is an additive process. We still go to the movies. We watch TV. We IM. We email. We read blogs. We listen to podcasts. We micro blog on Twitter. But sooner or later it's all going to hit a wall. Ask anyone who received 100+ SMSes this weekend as Twitter tipped the tuna at the SXSW conference. This influx was on top of all of the usual barrage of calls, feeds, IMs and emails that already fill every nook and cranny of our lives.

To cope, we've developed a defense mechanism - what Linda Stone calls Continuous Partial Attention. The content industry has responded by chunking things down for us into snacks that complement the meal. That's smart.  I told marketers to do the same. However, something at some point has to give. The only way out is perhaps with tools that make things easier for us.

That brings me back to Twitter. Despite it's lack of management/search features, Twitter is downright addicting. I love it. It's brevity lets me blog more actively and at the same time engage in real-time conversations with my "followers" (as they call it). If things have seemed a little quieter over here, it's because I have been busier over there. (Here's my Twitter feed)

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Will people spend less time writing or reading blogs and more time Twittering? I posed this question on Twitter and got a resounding no. I am not so sure.

What about one's Technorati link authority? It feels far less relevant now given the newfound pulls on our attention. All of these networks measure friends and connections, not links. This is the emerging currency of influence, just as it is in the physical world.

All of these are big questions with lots of grey. What I believe, however, is that our attention span will hit a wall. It's why people migrate from site to site and few have staying power (Geocities, Friendster? Exactly). If Twitter continues its meteoric rise, then we may well be witnessing a changing of the guard. That doesn't mean blogging as we know it will go away. But it will surely morph in Twitter's wake if a big shift is underway.

John Edwards Lands on Twitter

Thomas Hawk points out that US presidential candidate John Edwards is using Twitter. On the Edwards site he also lists all of the other various social nets he and his staff are utilzing.

Paparazzi Face Stiff Competition from Camera Phones

The professional paparazzi have for years had a lock on the market for celebrity photos. However, now that we're all armed with camera phones and tools like Flickr and Twitter, the game is changing. They face a lot of competition. Just wait until the image quality starts to get more sophisticated. (Hey Twitter dudes, start supporting MMS so we can upload photos and videos too.)

Exhibit A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs at leisure. He's just enjoying his kid's soccer game and, oh, talking on an iPhone you can't buy yet. Had the snap been higher quality it could have been worth a lot. It is a sign of where things are going. Of course, the privacy implications are massive and some celebs are banning camera phones from key events, like weddings.

The ramifications here are significant for PR. Nothing is hidden anymore. If it's in plain sight, it's game to be hunted. (Via TUAW)

A Basic Twitter Search Engine

Using Google Co-op I created a simple search engine that scours Twitter. Feel free to improve on it. For simplicity sake, this bare bones tool excludes all RSS pages from within the site. It's also unfortunately not time based. I wish Google would let us create custom search engines using their blog search and other tools. Who's up for making a mobile version of this baby? If it's used, I will also publish a Twitter zeitgest.

Peers vs. Pros: Who's Faster on News?

One of the most fundamental shifts over the last several years has been the incredible acceleration of the news cycle. Today information travels faster than it ever did before. The pros and peers not only compete, they complete each other. Clearly technology is enabling this and mobile devices and cameraphones are giving it serious juice. 

These changes are at the heart of why the PR business needs to adopt a whole new way of working. As my CEO Richard Edelman is often heard saying, we need to now facilitate horizontal peer-to-peer communication even as we continue to rely on the traditional top-down media centric model that built our industry.

Here's an example that shows how pros and peers work in the wild and how the latter can help the former distribute information faster.

Over the past few weeks I have become totally addicted to Twitter - a micro blogging platform that is tied to IM and SMS. I am using it to actively lifeblog wherever I go. I share bits that include everything from meeting Carmen Electra yesterday to SMSing bite-sized nuggets that could one day be blown out here as posts (or perhaps not). The fact that the platform integrates with my mobile device makes all the difference. If you're interested, you might want to subscribe to my Twitter feed.

Twitter does more than keep me closer to my friends. It allows them to share news with me. Take a look at the screen grab below. I learned about Scooter Libby's conviction from Jason Calacanis minutes before I did from CNN and using the same channel of information. In this case, a Twitter IM.

Now I don't expect my friends to beat the pros on a big story like this. After all, the news media was there at the courtroom. Still, news big and small travels across all channels and this little anecdote shows that sometimes the peers are a lot faster because of the technology.

Twittering

I am loving Twitter. If you haven't seen it check it out at Twitter.com. Basically, it's micro blogging. You update your status via the Web, IM or SMS. My handle is steverubel so feel free to add me as a friend.

Dave Winer Intros Mobile Blogging Tool

Dave Winer, considered by many as the father of blogging, has introduced a web-based mobile blogging tool that allows anyone to write and (this is key) edit blog posts using a mobile device. For PR professionals managing blog projects, such a tool is essential since we're often on the go and not far from a Blackberry.

Flickr Beefs Up as Tabblo Launches

Thomas Hawk gives us a tour of a tabblo, a new photo sharing site. Further, he points to an upgrade note from team Flickr. They will soon be adding enhanced search with full booleans, improved photo organization tools, and a boost to the number of photos you can see on most pages.

Technorati Tags: Flickr, Photos, tabblo

Blog, RSS Marketing Picking Up Steam

Where's the money going in marketing? eMarketer knows. According to a survey of ad:tech attendees conducted by MarketingSherpa, there's an immediate interest in spending on RSS and blog marketing with a longer term look towards mobile, podcasting and advergaming. (Via Mobhappy)

Technorati Tags: Advertising, Mobile, Wireless