The search engine landscape is quietly under going a major revolution. There are two major forces at work here: our growing hunger for real-time information and the coming convergence of search and social networking. The latter adds a much needed layer of trust to traditional search that helps us qualify sources.
While some feel such shifts in search patterns potentially pose a short-term threat to Google, I don't quite see it that way. Google latest "Vince" update shows they clearly get the trust issue. However, Google does not have nearly the same depth in social networking as others and that's an issue longer term.
Instead, more immediately, these two trends will likely spur the growth of a new class of "live web" search tools that are tightly embedded inside social networks. This will almost certainly seal the demise of dedicated blog search sites. In addition, it's conceivable, though far less likely, that both these trends could erode news search sites as consumers seek out filtered information from people they trust.
Consider this nugget. According to compete.com (an account is required to view this subdomain data), traffic to search.twitter.com tripled in the last six months. Meanwhile, Google Blog Search traffic is flat and, only until just recently, the same can be said for Technorati. More importantly, Twitter Search has just about eclipsed Google Blog Search. As of February, Twitter Search attracted 1.35 million users while Google Blog Search, which has been plagued by relevance issues, sits at 1.38 million users.
Twitter's growth in search has been aided by its girth in the press. According to news volulme data from Daylife, Twitter's weekly media mentions rocketed from 2000 per week last year to nearly 8000 today. However, I see this all as just the beginning.
Right now Facebook and Twitter only let you search for content from across the entire network. You can't limit your search to only what your trusted circle have shared. On Friendfeed, however, you can. Still, as bullish as I remain about Friendfeed, I feel the utility of its social search feature will pale in comparison to what Facebook and Twitter could do if they were to enable the same functionality. The reason is reach.
Keep an eye on the social search space. It's not a short-term threat to Google, but it certainly represents a major shift in where and how we will search for relevant news and information by layering in trusted sources.
