The following is also my January 5th column for AdAge.com.
When I first started blogging five years ago, I was big into writing new year prediction posts. Many bloggers continue this fine tradition. I stopped when I realized that no one would go back and fact check me. More importantly, they were based on gut feelings, not numbers.
With that, sometime this year I resolved instead to form observations using data. The numbers then lead me to insights and directional trends. I prefer to talk about trends rather than predictions because they're based firmly on currents. Much of my focus on this blog over the past 18 months has been on trends. It's my job to study them.
Enter Google Insights for Search - which launched earlier this year. It's the closest thing we have to a global time capsule.
Often overlooked, there's so much you can learn from digging into aggregate query data. Given its huge share and the prevalence of search in our lives, Google actually knows more about us than our own mothers. Everyday we confide in it. We share what we think, hope and fear. The data is absolutely invaluable and the archive goes back five years.
With that in mind, using Google Insights I crunched some data and spotted three Internet trends. These are simply thought-starters as we start the new year (all figures are US only).
- We're growing comfortable with social networks - Not surprisingly, social network related searches grew 178% in 2008. Historically, however, the top searches in the category have reflected privacy concerns. This year was no different. The top keywords included "hide friends" (#7) and "hide comments"(#8). However, search volume on these keywords actually declined in 2008. This, perhaps, is the biggest indicator that as a nation we're becoming more comfortable living on social networks.
- Blogging maybe making a comeback - Searches related to blogging resources and services posted 64% growth in 2004. Then they basically flat-lined the next three years. However, in 2008 they climbed 24%. It's highly likely that in both years this was fueled by the election. But my gut is that something deeper maybe going on here. Perhaps some see blogs as a powerful personal branding tool that can help them weather the recession. Searches for the keywords "personal brand" are also up significantly.
- The recession drove consumers to shop online - Perhaps surprisingly, shopping related searches grew 50% year over year in the fourth quarter. Between 2004 and 2007 search volume typically reached the same apex in December. This year was different. Consumers were also looking for deals. Coupon related searches grew 61% in the fourth quarter. If consumers continue to find deals online, then the trend could stick.
Insights without data is useless and, of course, Google is just one indicator. However, it's the best tool that we have and a good way to gauge where the wind will blow in 2009. It will be fun to watch to see how this all evolves and to see if any of this is right.
