« November 2008 | Main | January 2009 »

December 2008

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

links for 2008-12-31

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Reading Tea Leaves for 2009 in Google Search Data

The following is also my January 5th column for AdAge.com.

When I first started blogging five years ago, I was big into writing new year prediction posts. Many bloggers continue this fine tradition. I stopped when I realized that no one would go back and fact check me. More importantly, they were based on gut feelings, not numbers.

With that, sometime this year I resolved instead to form observations using data. The numbers then lead me to insights and directional trends. I prefer to talk about trends rather than predictions because they're based firmly on currents. Much of my focus on this blog over the past 18 months has been on trends. It's my job to study them.

Enter Google Insights for Search - which launched earlier this year. It's the closest thing we have to a global time capsule.

Often overlooked, there's so much you can learn from digging into aggregate query data. Given its huge share and the prevalence of search in our lives, Google actually knows more about us than our own mothers. Everyday we confide in it. We share what we think, hope and fear. The data is absolutely invaluable and the archive goes back five years.

With that in mind, using Google Insights I crunched some data and spotted three Internet trends. These are simply thought-starters as we start the new year (all figures are US only).


  • We're growing comfortable with social networks - Not surprisingly, social network related searches grew 178% in 2008. Historically, however, the top searches in the category have reflected privacy concerns. This year was no different. The top keywords included "hide friends" (#7) and "hide comments"(#8). However, search volume on these keywords actually declined in 2008. This, perhaps, is the biggest indicator that as a nation we're becoming more comfortable living on social networks.
  • Search Volume for Social Networks

    Search Volume for "Hide Comments"

  • Blogging maybe making a comeback - Searches related to blogging resources and services posted 64% growth in 2004. Then they basically flat-lined the next three years. However, in 2008 they climbed 24%. It's highly likely that in both years this was fueled by the election. But my gut is that something deeper maybe going on here. Perhaps some see blogs as a powerful personal branding tool that can help them weather the recession. Searches for the keywords "personal brand" are also up significantly.
  • Search Volume for Blogging Services

    Search Volume for Personal Brand


  • The recession drove consumers to shop online - Perhaps surprisingly, shopping related searches grew 50% year over year in the fourth quarter. Between 2004 and 2007 search volume typically reached the same apex in December. This year was different. Consumers were also looking for deals. Coupon related searches grew 61% in the fourth quarter. If consumers continue to find deals online, then the trend could stick.

Search Volume Related to Shopping

Search Volume for Coupons

Insights without data is useless and, of course, Google is just one indicator. However, it's the best tool that we have and a good way to gauge where the wind will blow in 2009. It will be fun to watch to see how this all evolves and to see if any of this is right.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

links for 2008-12-28

Saturday, December 27, 2008

links for 2008-12-27

Friday, December 26, 2008

Google Now Features Blog Thumbnails

Twice this week when I searched for a blogger's name and some other related keywords, I noticed that Google is running a little thumbnail alongside the first links. I have verified that this is not an experiment but rather a new mini feature. When I logged out of my account I was able to replicate it.

You should be able to see this for yourself on the following searches: Gigaom papers and Luis Suarez.

It appears to be in effect for WordPress blogs. See updates at the end of this post.

Blog Thumbnails in Google Results

Blog Thumbnails in Google Results

LATER:: If your blog is on Wordpress, then you get a thumbnail. This can also be found in a search for Scobleizer. Also, try Googling Jeff Jarvis or Kevin Mason blog and you will get the same result.

EVEN LATER:: There are further updates in the comments. Matt Cutts from Google notes this is a bug. Meanwhile, the images are popping up for some TypePad and Blogger blogs as well.

The Web 2.0 Blogs Will Be Fine in 09

Mark Evans is asking whether the big Web 2.0 blogs will face tough times next year...

One of the fundamental questions is whether there will be enough “juice” to support growth or, for that matter, the status quo. If advertising declines, particularly by attention-seeking startups, how will that impact TechCrunch, GigaOm, ReadWriteWeb, et al? And if the number of new start-ups shrinks, does that create less editorial fodder to attract readers?

Robert Scoble wrote in the comments that the action is moving out of blogs into social networks and that this will challenge the bigs.

I think the big Web 2.0 blog franchises will remain strong in 2009. I do expect their editorial slants to change with the times. Beyond that, here are three things to watch ...

  • First, to Robert’s comments, blogs vs. social networks is not a zero sum game. Social networks and search will help all of us filter out the noise and hone in on the signal. Some of this signal will be blog content. Other times soc nets will serve as a lens onto traditional media.
  • Second, expect to see these sites diversify their revenue streams beyond advertising and events. Research is a good area and one that probably leaves other, older companies exposed on price. GigaOm is already publishing solid white papers. Databases are another potential source of revenue. CrunchBase may have unlocked value.
  • Finally could there be a demand for subscription blogs? In other words, maybe there’s a premium
    version of TechCrunch that is for VCs and reasonably priced.

Twitter on Crack and for Speedy Customer Service

A couple of Twitter-related gems from my feed reader tonight...

First, Mike Elgan has set up a site called Twitter on Crack that auto-refreshes your personal Twitter page every 15 seconds. If I recall Twitter used to do this on its own, but now it doesn't.

I avoid running any more desktop apps than I need to, so I skip TweetDeck and the like. Now, however, when I want to swim in Tweets, I find this site is the ideal solution.

Meanwhile, down south, Rex Hammock has a Christmas Eve tale about how two companies - EyeFi and Griffin Technologies - were using Twitter to respond to customer inquires over the holiday. The use of Twitter as a customer service venue is definitely a key trend to watch.

links for 2008-12-26

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Living without Email - One Man's Story. Are you Next?

One of my fondest memories of 2008 was meeting Luis Suarez from IBM. We both spoke at the Next08 conference together in Hamburg. (I will be returning to Germany in 2009 for the Next09 event.)

Luis' story is amazing. First, he lives in the Canary Islands and he's a social computing evangelist/knowledge management specialist for IBM. Until recently, he reported to managers in the Netherlands and the US. Now he is reporting locally to folks at IBM in Spain, but he still works at home.

What's notable here is that Luis during the year has been on a quest to eliminate all business email. According to his latest status report, he's down to about 20-40 a day. He wrote about his experience in the New York Times earlier this year. I also interviewed Luis on the subject last month via Skype as part of an Edelman Change event that we held for clients, which you can view below or here.

So how is Luis doing it? By pushing more of his communication into social networks and wikis - both internal and external and relying more on IM. Luis is an inspiration. So do you think this is part of a broader trend? Is your email down this year? I think mine is down slightly and I am wondering if we're all starting to live like Luis and what the broader ramifications might be for internal communications.

Obama's Lessons for PR Professionals and Marketers

These days, it invariably comes up in virtually every client or prospect conversation. I call it TQ - short for "the question." A lot of people want to know: "How can we be like Barack?"

Companies and NGOs are eager for insights into the President Elect's magical marketing formula. They're hungry to study the campaign and apply his methods for building connections through social networks and a broader groundswell of support.

A new book coming out next month breaks the incoming President's approach down into an easy to read format. The book, entitled Barack, Inc.: Winning Business Lessons of the Obama Campaign, is available for pre-order on Amazon. However, if you have a Safari Online account, you can already read online it there, which is what I did today. Snippets are available on Google Book Search. It's overall a quick read.

Barack, Inc. breaks down Obama's strategy to three simple phrases: Be Cool. Be Social. Be the Change. I loved these simple Haiku-like expressions so much that I clipped the graphic off their web site and saved it on my computer. I have it here so you can do the same.

Be Cool means zeroing in problems, developing practical solutions, all while remaining unflappable and undistracted. It explains how the Obama team always focused on its core goal.

Be Social is the part that will interest many of you. It covers how Team Obama cultivated a grassroots following, built MyBarackObama.com into a powerhouse, created outposts in every major social network, leveraged mobile marketing and turned CRM into what they call CMR (customer managed relationships).

Be the Change was easy for Obama. That was his entire platform. But the book explains what this means for businesses - creating a vision and taking on tough issues, both your own challenges and the globe's, in a forthright, authentic way. It also means creating an internal environment that supports multiple points of view, which Obama does well.

Whether you're an Obama fan or not, I recommend the book. It offers a great roadmap for how 21st Century organizations should be run, particularly in these challenging times.

links for 2008-12-25

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Popurls is My Pick for the Best Web Site of 2008

Popurls is my pick for the best web site of 2008.

There were a lot of web sites I really used actively this year - the entire Google network, Techmeme, Friendfeed, Facebook and, of course, Twitter. There's one though that stood out: Popurls. It's a site that people don't talk about enough and that's a shame because there's so much to tout here. Popurls rocked this year and it's my pick for the the best web site of 2008. (Disclaimer: the Popurls page features a link to my most recent blog post but I am not compensated by them in any way nor does Edelman, my employer, represent or currently work with them.)

Popurls calls itself "the dashboard for the latest web-buzz, a single page that encapsulates up-to-the-minute headlines from the most popular sites on the Internet." The site was created by Thomas Marban. What it basiscally does is aggregate web sites all in one place - digg, delicious, news sites, Techmeme, key blogs, media sites (Flickr, YouTube, etc) and much more. The great thing about it is that you can easily personalize it to your tastes. As you use it, the site gets smarter and shows you recommendations. You can view stats for the web site here.

So why am I nuts about Popurls? There are many reasons...

However, there's an even bigger story here that everyone is missing. Thomas Marban is making money.

Popurls has sponsors. More importantly, the site is represented by Federated Media. Together they have come up with some very clever, deep brand integrations. For example, Populrs and Intel created Popurls Blue for IT managers. It also debuted a partnership with Epson.

It's too bad that Popurls doesn't get the props it deserves from the tech blogging community. It's an important site. They had a banner year and it's easily one of my favorites overall. Congrats to Thomas on a great 2008 and I look forward to seeing more innovation from him in 2009. A next logical step for them would be an API.

ABC News Launches an iPhone Application

ABC News iPhone Application ABC News iPhone Application ABC News iPhone Application

As the year rolls to a close, several news organizations have added iPhone applications to the iTunes App Store. These include USA Today, NPR and Accuweather. Now throw in ABC News, which launched this morning.

The ABC News iPhone application features video clips from their national news programs, stories from the web site as well as local clips from affiliates in major cities. In addition, what's unique about the application is that they also have a tab for breaking news and local emergency alerts.

You can download the free application here (iTunes link)

links for 2008-12-24

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Andy Beal on Investing in Social Media Spaces

Andy Beal comments on what he calls the "Scoble Dilemma":

Marketing Pilgrim is owned by me, operated by me, hosted by me. The investments made into building our audience–currently close to 13,000 daily readers–will, in theory, always be realized. Compare this to my use of Twitter. I love using Twitter, I love the social interaction, the conversations, and the ability to better connect with folks, but I make very little “investment” in Twitter. I know some folks that have built their entire reputation around their Twitter/LinkedIn/Facebook community and I hope it’s always there for them.

Could a backlash be coming? Maybe if Twitter builds an ad revenue model and shares it with the audience they can stem the tide. Interesting notes about how Pownce is no longer with us and how some invested time there. The same could be said for Jaiku perhaps since Google has done nothing with it since they bought it.

Retro Scobleizer Will Return to His Roots

Interesting discussion overnight between my friends Robert Scoble and MIke Arrington over whether Robert's personal brand diminished because of his love for Friendfeed. How refreshing and retro that this conversation is actually taking place via blogs instead of just on Twitter and Friendfeed, where I am sure it is also happening.

Arrington opines:

 

So Robert has spent 2,555 hours spent reading tens out thousands of mostly inane Twitter and Friendfeed messages, and has written a few thousand messages of his own. Meanwhile, we as a community lost the regularly entertaining and thoughtful posts of a great writer. Like I said, it’s time for an intervention.

I want Scobleizer back.

 

Scoble responds with pros and cons.

I have to agree with Mike here. I don't follow Scoble as much as I used to. And I am someone who has been reading Robert over five years now. In fact, one of my very first posts was about him. The reason I stopped tracking Santa Scoble was simple - I don't spend a lot of time on Twitter and Friendfeed. RSS is my addiction and I dip into these other streams and then dip out as I have time. I never miss a post in my reader.

In 2009 I think we're going to see a lot of the old guard return to their roots - their blogs. The reason is home field advantage. Why build build Twitter or Friendfeed's equity, when you can invest in the turf you spent so much time on? That said, there are tremendous advantages to doing all of the above.

Louis Gray, Chris Brogan and Jeremiah Owyang all seem to have the right model. They do it all. How, I don't know but they do. I have been blogging more lately too. I missed writing long form. My roof has a leak and I am fixing it. Scoble should do the same and I bet he will.

I wrote a post on this earlier this year: Should You Rent or Buy Social Real Estate. The answer - both. But ask first which helps pay the bills. In my case it's my blog. Twitter and Friendfeed are steroids.

As personal branding becomes a weapon in a down economy, look for blogging to make a return run.

RetweetRadar Adds Context Around Re-Tweeting

Although there's not a lot of space when it comes to retweeting, you can extract insights from what people are saying around them. That was what many of you said in commenting on my post the other day. That's where Retweetradar comes in.

Using the Google App Engine, Retweet Radar looks for trends in all of the re-tweeting over the last hour and pulls them into a nice tag cloud. It auto-refreshes every two minutes. Click on a term and it will take you to the conversation on search.twitter.com. (One of my hopes in 2009 is that Twitter finally integrates this into the main site.)

Nice effort by Ben Hedrington

Retweetradar

links for 2008-12-23

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Calculate the Cost of Information Overload to Your Company

If the stock market and housing crashes aren't costing you enough, just wait. The Attention Crash may also be eroding your company bit by bit.

According to Basex, a research firm, information overload cost the U.S. economy $900 billion per year in "lowered employee productivity and reduced innovation." Up to 50 percent of our day is spent managing and searching for information.

Now Basex has created a a free, Web-based "information overload calculator" so that anyone can now can estimate the dollar impact of the Attention Crash on their own business. There's also a free report, "Information Overload: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us."

Simply visit the web site, identify your industry and the percentage of your employees who are highly skilled, skilled, single skilled or unskilled and it will give you a number. I am not sure how they are doing this though without asking for revenues. Still, it's a fun - yet scary - tool.

Re-Tweets Comprise Two Percent of All Twitter Volume

Back in January I wrote about the Lazysphere and it's impact on blogging. My point then was that many tech bloggers have become lazy in simply re-blogging links rather than breaking news or writing essays that outline powerful new ideas or big questions. Now there are signs that the same is spreading to Twitter.

As of this writing, approximately two percent of tweets - or a staggering 34,000 Twitter postings per day - are simply re-shared content. I calculated the figure by tracking the number of mentions per day for either RT or retweet using Twist. Then, I compared the data to the daily volume statistics on TweetRush. Below are two charts from the last seven days. Using Thursday as a moment in time, 1.9% of the 1.8M tweets used either the word retweet or RT (approximately 34,500).

Retweets Volume is 2% of Tweets

Twitter Volume

My frustrations with the Lazysphere led me to set up a special "Thinkers" folder in Google Reader that I treat like a mutual fund. I love this feed because it's a fountain of new ideas and debate. It's like visiting Ben Franklin's Junto. And it reminds me about what attracted me to first reading blogs in 2003.

Twitter is different that blogging, of course. It's not a Junto. It's more like visiting a party and eavesdropping on conversations between friends. However, if the two percent of the volume overall is re-tweeting it's conceivable that it might be higher within your network.

In my case it is and it's why - for as much as I enjoy Twitter - I take Leo's approach and treat it like a swimming pool where I take the occasional dip. I get far more value out of my RSS reader than I do from Twitter but nothing beats it for getting answers to questions. So each medium fills a role in my information diet. But I wonder overtime what impact re-tweeting or lazy blogging might have on the conversation overall

Search


My Photo

Follow Me on Twitter

Subscribe

Contact Me


  • Email Me

  • My Employer

Read My Favorite Feeds

Miscellany

Related Posts Widget for Blogs by LinkWithin