I want to make a bet with you today. By January 2014 I will wager that in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct. I am not just talking about print, but all tangible forms of media - newspapers, magazines, books, DVDs, boxed software and video games.
Don't believe me? Consider the following news items, all of which broke in the last month ...
- Microsoft (an Edelman client) yesterday opened up a store to sell all of its software online for immediate download (November 13)
- Apple is selling record numbers of downloadable games for the iPhone and iPod Touch. This is attracting publishers because the lack of physical media is better economically for both consumers and video game creators (November 12)
- Oprah sparked a deluge of traffic when she endorsed the Amazon Kindle as the next big thing (November 3)
- Lots of alternatives are emerging for ebooks including the iPhone (November 3)
- Microsoft is set to open up the XBox 360 to user-generated games on November 19, all of which will only be available via download - there will be no DVDs (October 30)
- Netlfix is making its catalogue available over the Internet and on set-top boxes like the XBox 360 and soon TiVo (October 30)
- The Christian Science Monitor said it is folding its daily print edition in favor of moving it online (October 28)
Finally, if you need further proof, when was the last time you bought a CD? Exactly. For me it was back in 2003. I haven't purchased a newspaper in at least two years and the number of people who I see toting them on my morning train have declined too. I canceled my last print subscription this month and I am now living 100% "media green." Also I recently signed up for Safari Books Online and I am liking it a lot, though it's pricey and their iPhone client needs a lot of work.
We're moving fast toward becoming a society that consumes media entirely in digital format. Part of it is environmental, but a lot of it is because of broadband and connected devices. Now of course it will take a long long time for this to become a global phenomenon. But in the US at least, the pace has picked up a lot just in the last few months. Further, with the very green-aware millennials set to become the dominant demographic in the US by 2010 I would expect you will see even more of this.
So what do you think? Participate in the poll below. (Feed readers will need to click through)
