Micro Persuasion

Trends That Will Help Define the Future of PR and Marketing

In June Edelman, my employer, and PRWeek held a two-day summit on the changing media landscape and its affect on business and education. More than 90 people participated. Recently we published a paper chock full of with actionable insights for businesses. You can download it here (PDF). Here's the conclusion I wrote.

Trends That Will Help Define the Future

The best way to think about new media, I have learned, is to look at the recent past and at the trends that are here now and seemingly have staying power. Apple CEO Steve Jobs once famously said "you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards." He’s right. With that in mind, there are three trends that are likely to shape things over the next four years.

The Attention Crash

Though the current global financial crisis grabs all the headlines, there's another storm quietly brewing - a crisis of attention scarcity. The inputs we have into our lives - that which we allow and those that are forced upon us - are exceeding what we are capable of managing.

The Attention Crash is here and it will only get worse. There will always be more content vying for consideration. In fact, Google CEO Eric Schmidt said "By the year 2019, it's going to be possible to have an iPod-like device that will have 85 years of video on it. So you will be dead before you watch the whole [thing]."

Generation Y seems to be able to better manage this new environment, having grown up with a mouse in hand. But marketers who are a little more gray will need to adapt by creating and earning media that can break through the clutter and “stick.” This requires they keep things short, simple and visual.

Brands, media and individuals will have a role in mitigating the Attention Crash. Every high–interest niche will be met by digital curators who can separate art from junk online and present it in a very digestible form.

Already, some are jumping in. Intel partnered with PopURLs.com to create a news tracker for IT professionals. The site also features Intel white papers and blogs. The New York Times too is transforming into a digital curator. On the newspaper’s technology site reporters cull through blog conversations that have bubbled up during the day and highlight and link to the most notable posts.

Social Networks Become “Like Air”

Social networking is here to stay - but it’s changing. As my fellow panelist Charlene Li says, it’s becoming “like air” on the Web. In essence, social networking is nothing new, really. It’s simply a digital, global and scalable manifestation of our desire to communicate with other humans. The technology makes it easy for like-minded individuals to connect and collaborate around the topics they care about. This can range from personal to professional interests. A lot of it revolves around social causes.

Today we have three big social network hubs - LinkedIn, Facebook and MySpace (an Edelman client). In addition, we have an expanding constellation of smaller social networks such as Beebo, Twitter, YouTube and the hundreds of thousands of vertical communities that comprise Ning - a do-it-yourself platform. There will be room for all of them to thrive, but consumers soon won’t need to visit these destinations to connect with their network.

Social circles are becoming portable so they can follow the consumer to any site they want to visit. Facebook and Google, for example, each have competing technology platforms that Web site owners can integrate to allow consumers and their social circle to connect in new experiences without having to sign up for another network.

Brand marketers that may be tempted to build their own social networks need to consider that there may not be room in people’s lives for more than one or two. They will need to plug into the social “air” supply that the large networks are building across the Web so that consumers can stay connected to their existing networks.

Google: The Reputation Engine

The third trend that also will continue its current trajectory is the rising influence of search, particularly Google. The search engine, as of this writing, has 70 percent market share in the U.S. and is even higher in other countries - but not all.

Google is much more than a search engine. It’s media.

Every day people make purchasing and life decisions based on what they find on the Web. Patients visit their doctor’s office armed with reams of information they found on Google, some of it right, some wrong. Consumers are accessing Google from their cell phones to compare prices when shopping. And Wikipedia, a site that no one controls, tends to dominate many high–profile search results.

Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and others are increasingly tweaking their algorithms to stop spammers and other “black-hat” types. Today most search engine result pages tend to favor high–quality content produced by media, brands and individuals.

Communicators will need to know how to create and earn content that is not only findable, but worthy of discussion so that it earns and maintains visibility in Google - which often makes judgments based on quality.

What the future looks like in four years know one knows. However, if businesses follow these trends, at least directionally, they will be prepared to navigate the new environment.

Lifestream Links

Over the last few months I have been blogging a lot less than I really would like to. I have so much I want to say here and often so little time to write thoughtful essays. There are weeks I get on blogging kick. Last week was one. Then there are times where it's nearly impossible to bang out quality posts with meetings, travel and client work.

That said, I am very active online every day and especially generous in sharing links on Twitter and Friendfeed - even when all I am toting is my iPhone. So if you're not subscribed to my lifestream feed, you might want switch to since that's where I am putting all the good stuff. Here's a sample from tonight ...

• Quarkbase is an interesting site that aims to tell you "everything about a web site." So far most of the data they offer is available elsewhere. However the presentation is amazing
• Twitter Grader offers rich data on Twitter users by handle and ranks them. Fun for egos everywhere
• ABC News' 20/20 this week looks at what people search for - porn and celebrities
• Facebook gets closer to Friendfeed with the addition of a "live feed" that auto-refreshes all of your friends' items. I feel that Friendfeed is essentially becoming Facebook for geeks (of which I am one)
• Steve Broback is putting all of the free blog search engines through their paces
• Accuweather is now on Twitter

A Fireside Chat Guy Kawasaki at Blogworld

Next month I am going to the Blogworld Expo in Conference in Las Vegas. I was slated to be the lunchtime keynote on Friday, September 19 but, happily, there's been a change in plans. I am now going to participate in a fireside chat with Guy Kawasaki, one of my heroes. Hopefully it will be as fun as the last time he appeared on stage with a Steve (see video below). Hope to see you in Vegas. The full event schedule is here.

Get Paid to Twitter Using the Adjix Link Shrinker

I was just contacted by a reporter who is working on a story about Adjix, a new service that conceivably gives everyone on Twitter a way to make money for tweeting.  It could be a smash hit, but it's got caveats.

Adjix, like TinyURL, is a URL shortener - but with at twist. It's also an advertising network that wraps your redirected links with a small ad frame. If you create an account with Ajix and people view or click on your links, you get a share of the revenue. You won't get rich, mind you. But you can collect $0.10 for  every 1000 unique views and $0.20 for each valid, unique, click-through. That might be hard to scale for some people, but instantly it give the top dogs on Twitter a way to monetize. Here's a screenshot of the account management console.

According to the FAQ, advertisers can choose their ad category. Meanwhile linkers can also select a category that best matches the content the same when they shrink a link. Also noteworthy is that Adjix has an open API. However, the service is only available in the US.

From a user perspective, Adjix definitely a strong play. It's easy to see why bloggers and the Twitterati may skip using TinyURL or another URL-shortening service when they can make money by using Adjix. However, on the flip side, the ad frame is annoying and your readers/followers might feel the same way. Also, I don't see any way for the user to opt in or opt out of certain advertisers. So beware that you have almost no control here.

From an advertiser point of view - I would recommend watching and waiting. If Adjix takes off, then the service could be a great way to reach influencers who live on social networks. However, from what I can tell, as of now Adjix is lacking any kind of contextual algorithm right now that would make it a stronger sell for marketers who want to have their ad show against certain URLs or groups of URLs (and also to block others).

Finally, there's the publisher point of view. I think anyone who is running ads will be irked since any other placements around theirs could distract eyeballs, clicks, etc.

In sum, we need more innovative advertising business models out there like this. In a perfect world, Twitter, Friendfeed and other services should be coming up with ideas like these to make their users even happier. But as they focus on building their communities and scaling, an economy of service providers like Adjix and perhaps even Google may rush in and that's good for us, the users, though some will certainly complain given the issues here. (Note: I am not affiliated with this service nor am I using it since it's ridden with conflict for me.)

Tiger Woods Responds to Fan's YouTube Video

This video response is brilliant marketing on the part of Electronic Arts and Tiger Woods. A fan posted on YouTube that it's possible for Woods to hit a golf ball in Tiger Woods 08 while walking on water. How does Tiger react? By showing how it's done and promoting Tiger Woods 09 in the process. It shows they listen and bring in the big guns to engage. (via John Porcaro)

LATER:: Michael Phelps is someone who gets this too. Note how he responded to his fans today on Facebook ...

Cloud Computing's Impact on Digital Marketing - Trends to Watch

Photo credit: King Cloud by akakumo.

The following is my column in next week's AdAge...

One of the biggest trends shaping technology today is called "cloud computing." Consumers and business are moving more of their data off their computers and into rich Internet applications that are available everywhere - e.g. "the cloud." You can experience this for yourself on sites like Yahoo Mail, Google Docs, Salesforce.com and Mint.com.

While geeks have been gushing over web-based software for years now, the average consumer has been slower in adopting them. That said, given the already huge popularity of webmail services, it's only a matter of time before they do for more complex tasks.

Here are three things for marketers to watch...

LESS IS MORE: How much did you spend on your last computer? If you're like most you probably plunked down anywhere from $1,000 to $2,000. However, your next computer could be a sub-$500 netbook.

Netbooks are light, low-powered, cheap laptops with small screens. They rely on the Internet for most tasks and are growing in popularity. According to Google Trends, netbook searches are up 4x this year and IDC sees sales topping nine million in 2012.

As netbooks rise, thin will be in. Since these computers are underpowered by design, consumers who use these devices will eschew complicated, 3D or processor-intense experiences in favor of interfaces that are easy and formatted for a 10" screen.

WEB APP ADS: Many online applications like Google Reader are free. Others, like Mindmeister - a mind mapping tool - operate under a fremium model where the basics are free but advanced features carry a premium. To date most are devoid of ads.

Webmail has displayed ads since its earliest days. Others like Meebo, a universal IM service, or the online radio site Pandora are taking this a step further by creating immersive brand experiences. However this is just the beginning.

As web applications rise, it will unleash innovation. For example, online photo editors like Adobe Photoshop Express (note - Adobe is an Edelman client) or Picnik could serve ads for how-to photography books to consumers that spend an extensive amount of time tinkering.

MOBILE FIRST, NOT LAST: Too often today, mobile is an afterthought rather than the focal point when it comes to digital marketing.

Cloud computing is liberating people from their computers. Some executives I know leave their laptops at home when traveling on business since their smartphones carry the load. In 10 years time this will be the norm as mobile devices, powered by cloud computing, wirelessly connect to keyboards, mice and monitors and offer as rich experience as today's computers. This trend toward one device that does it all will be a catalyst for mobile marketing.

UPDATE:: One thing I did not cover in this column is reliability. Om's got a great post on this today.

Moderating Comments at the New York Times

Ever wonder how a big web site like the New York Times moderates comments? Look no further. Marci Alboher, one of the paper's bloggers, explains her responsibility in the process and points to the Times' official policy on the matter.

In Alboher's case, what's notable is that she doesn't stand for anything self-promotional. She bounces comments that she says are "pandering to me (like visiting the blog to tell me that I’m brilliant and have my finger on the pulse of something) or blatantly self-promotional."

Read

The Risk in Using Twitter as a Public Utility

Despite all of its recent up-time troubles, Twitter's growth has been on a tear lately. According to Google Ad Planner data, time spent is off the charts at a staggering 550 seconds per user in the US and 560 seconds globally. Compare those figures to 480 seconds per user for CNN - a site that's at least 10 years older. In addition, as you can see from the chart below, daily unique users are skyrocketing as well.

As Twitter's audience grows more companies are starting using it to engage its user base. In essence this turns the site into a service and fosters innovation. For example, I love how the Los Angeles County Fire Department is using Twitter for news distribution.

Some have wisely suggested that utility computing is a potential business model for the micro-blogging service. This is already happening perhaps more than meets the eye. For example, Mindmeister, the online mindmapping tool, uses the Twitter API to power it's SMS alerting capabilities. Therein lies the issue. If Twitter makes a change to the API, which it did yesterday, then it impacts anyone who uses it. As a result, Mindmeister was forced to make changes to the way it handles notifications.

The takeaway here for me is that as fantastic as web services are, many of them are controlled by one party and are thus a single point of failure. If they go down or the particular site makes a change to the web service call, it can potentially ripple through the Internet economy if the API is popular.

So, mashup, develop and go nuts with APIs - but always proceed with caution becuase the rug can be pulled out from under you as it was for Mindmeister.

Does the Thrill of the Chase Make PR Obsolete?

As a relatively high-profile blogger, I get to see things that others in PR, even those who blog, don't experience. One of those is my Gmail inbox. It's my barometer for how the public relations is adapting in this era of change. The forecast? We're smack dab in a cat five hurricane.

Every day I am deluged with hundreds of PR pitches. They come from everywhere: startups, big companies, competing PR firms and, occasionally, from people inside Edelman where I work. I read all the emails but delete 99.99% of them. I don't even respond. I feel bad about it, but they're so off base I can't even begin to tell you how bad they are.

To be sure, there are a few companies that get it right all the time - mostly those with content like ABC News, the New York Times, Pew, Hitwise, Forrester, IDC and others. The rest simply don't. However, I can't fault these PR pros. They're doing their job. They are doing what has always worked for them and I guess continues: sending out lots of email pitches in hopes that some stick. But those days are coming to an end.

It's my view that increasingly, bloggers (and maybe journos too) simply don't want our help. Many bloggers - particularly those who cover tech - love to discover new things and experience them on their own, unaided by PR. Exhibit A: Robert Scoble. Note the joy of serendipity in his post. However he's not alone by any means.

I know that when I write about news (which is not as often as I used to), I mostly do so if I discovered it on my own - as I did twice over the weekend. If I didn't find it on my own or stumble upon it early myself, I don't bother. I actually like the thrill of the chase and serendipity. I want to be first. This is something that has fueled the egos of reporters for years - partly because it sells. Heck, count me in.

So what then for PR? If this is a universal truth - and I am not sure that it is - does it make us obsolete? If we don't adapt, yessir. PR Week Publishing Director Julia Hood and I recently discussed about this during our New Media Summit in Chicago. She said, and I agree, that pitching is broken.

We have to stop spamming people and make sure that companies and products are easy and a joy to discover. That's no easy feat. Further, it means giving up control. However, in a Google age where self-discovery rules, it's becoming a must.

New York Times Flags Print Edition Stories

The New York Times recently made a small, but important change to stories they post on their web site. If the story made it into print, at the bottom they include a tiny footnote that says where it ran and when. For example, the footer on this piece on video games notes: "A version of this article appeared in print on August 10, 2008, on page AR1 of the New York edition."

This kind of context is helpful not only for readers, but PR pros as well. The major monitoring services like Factiva tell you where a story ran, but Google News does not. Now it's easier to tell.

Most publications don't offer feeds for their print edition content. I wish they would. It provides context. The Economist is one of the few that does. However, at least for the Times, you can now you easily use Google News to build a feed for stories that they ran in print. Simply search for the phrase appeared in print. Then you can subscribe to the the RSS feed Google generates.

If you want, you can even get more specific - creating a feed for all stories that ran in print that are on a particular subject. For example, here's a search for stories about the Olympics that ran in the print edition of the Times. You can subscribe to the feed here.

Amazon Adds Universal Wish List

Amazon.com's Wish List feature has been around a long time - over 10 years in fact. However, recently the e-commerce site expanded it with a new feature called The Universal Wish List.

Using a simple bookmarklet (drag this to your bookmarks) you can now add any item to your list from anywhere on the web. As you can see from the image above, I was able to use the tool to add a Brett Favre jersey from NewYorkJets.com to my wish list. Once it was there, the new item basically acts like a bookmark, taking me back to the original site where I found the product.

Wish lists are one of the earliest forms of online social expression. You can add Amazon's wish list to your site as a widget or even your Facebook or Friendfeed profile. A list of products that people have added to their wish list can be found over on Friendfeed.

Now that Amazon has expanded this longtime feature of the site, I expect we'll see a certain type of user keeping their lists there - which if anything gives Amazon more data into insights into how people shop. In addition, it's conceivable that this could become a social commerce feature over time given Amazon's popular Associates program.

How Newspapers Can Turn Problems Into Profit

A few weeks ago I wrote about the perfect storm facing print media. Robert Scoble started a similar thread on Friendfeed over the weekend. This week in my AdAge column I look at the same trends, but this time through the lens of potential solutions to the problems.

Newspaper publishers are facing a perfect storm thanks to three megatrends: rising inflation, America's growing green conscience and disruptive technology. To succeed in this era of great change, they need to think about how to make lemonade out of these perceived lemons. Unfortunately, so far, they haven't. Here's my advice.

RISING INFLATION: As gas prices rise sharply, so do distribution costs. To compensate, many newspapers have announced they are significantly increasing their hard-copy newsstand prices. However, that's a 20th-century reaction to what is a complex, 21st-century problem.

What they should be doing instead is using this as an opportunity to put a hard date on when they will abandon print altogether, close down plants and migrate completely to a digital paradigm. They need to have faith that their brands and quality editorial product will encourage readers who haven't already migrated to do so.

GREEN CONSCIOUSNESS: Americans are increasingly becoming very aware of their environmental impact and what they can do to mitigate it. Millions are taking the simple step of cutting print subscriptions in favor of (slowly) going completely digital. Is this a threat to newspapers? Of course, but it's also an opportunity.

Advertising -- particularly outdoor and print -- also creates tremendous waste. Newspapers can take the lead in going green and in the process create new avenues for advertisers to play up their related social-responsibility programs online. It's a win all around.

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY: Last but not least we have the growing popularity of speedy 3G-enabled smartphones and devices such as Amazon's Kindle e-book reader. Newspapers have invested heavily here, creating smartphone apps and pushing content for Kindles. But they don't go far enough.

Newspapers have made it hard for readers to get what they want without jumping through hoops. For example, they syndicate story summaries in their RSS feeds (even to paid subscribers). This forces readers to visit the website for the full content, and when they do, they have to trip over interruptive ads and interstitials.

Make it easy for loyalists to get what they want, when they want it, and they will remain just that -- loyal.

MarketingAge Profile

Marketing Age magazine, which is published in Ireland, ran a profile of me in their July/August issue where I talk about my role within Edelman Digital, how I use RSS to keep in the know and trends in social networking - including Friendfeed. The article is not online. However, If you're interested, they have graciously given me permission to share it here. The full PDF is here or you can simply click through each of the images below, which are up on Flickr.