Two studies that crossed my screen tonight here in London point to a widening digital divide. I am not referring to the gap between those who are online and everyone else. The gulf I am addressing here is between those who are fully engaged with the web and, well, Earth.
The first piece of research from Parks Associates (via Dwight Silverman and CNET) reveals that one-fifth of all U.S. heads-of-household have never used e-mail. Based on the conversations I had in Europe this past week, this is even more pronounced outside the US where high mobile penetration makes things a bit more complicated to track.
Meanwhile, a separate white paper from IDC/Nortel (via Jackie Huba) - this one spanning 17 countries - found that 16% of the information workforce is already "Hyperconnected" and that another 36% will be joining us soon. Definitely download the PDF. It's an interesting read.
Source: IDC/Nortel White Paper - The Hyperconnected: Here They Come!
All of this data is consistent with what Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff talk about extensively in their new book, Groundswell. If you play with Forrester's Technographic profile tool, you can zero in on just how wide the divide is within your target audience. They peg 52% of the US online population as largely passive.
Net, this leaves me convinced that despite all of the buzz around the growth of new media and/or digital advertising, neither will replace existing modalities for some time to come. Yes, Scoble, that's why Google News still rules. Digital media is going to be additive in the near to medium term. However, in a decade - perhaps sooner, perhaps later - it will be a different story.
The data bodes well for businesses like the TV nets that live off the 30-second spot. Some have written the :30 off for dead. However, that's a bit premature.
The challenge for traditional media companies and the advertising ecosystem that support them is that static advertising is no longer a growth businesses. This will become particularly true as the number of Hyperconnected skyrocket. However, for now, old still co-exists with new.
The takeaway for marketers is to utilize all of the relevant venues/tactics as part of a comprehensive marketing strategy (the same goes for PR). Ignoring something because it's old school doesn't always make sense.
