Conventional wisdom says that technology - and nowadays the Internet - will always continue to advance and bring with it productivity gains and prosperity. That's certainly been the case for years. However, historically there are pauses. After the benefits of the Industrial Revolution were fully realized it took awhile for the next big era to begin. I wonder if we're about to enter a similar lull now that the Information Age is arguably almost 30 years old.
Mark Cuban argues that the Internet is now becoming a hinderance to our productivity. Idris Moote makes an even stronger case. He notes that productivity growth has gradually slowed since 2004. Moote cites statistics showing that interruptions from e-mail, cell phones, instant messaging, and blogs take up nearly 30% of each day; on an annualized basis, this represents a loss of 28 billion hours for the entire US workforce.
The United States - and other pockets of the developed world - are hooked on two drugs: information and busyness. As I've written many times, our rush to keep up with inputs can't scale and this may cause a sizable number of people to eventually cut back on info-crack, perhaps drastically.
The runaway success of my good friend Tim Ferriss' book, the Four Hour Workweek, is a direct manifestation of a desire that millions secretly have. If enough people get the willpower to say "enough" then spending on gadgets and time spent online could decline. In a worst case scenario, companies would retrench R&D spending and slow innovation. That's just one possibility of many, of course - and the most extreme (and unlikely).
The X factor here is actually a Y factor - Generation Y. They grew up in an age of information saturation. Gen Y'ers crave what psychiatrist Edward Hallowell calls screen sucking. The Internet is in their veins. They know no other way.
I am hopeful that as every successive generation emerges that never knew a world without the Net, the possibility for such a doomsday scenario decreases. That's not to say there won't be pain however. An informal digital divide has emerged between geeks and those who are blissfully and decidedly low tech. However, it's clear that we need new tools for managing interruptions - and they may not be technological, but social. Our prosperity may depend on it.
