Over the next two weeks (like in years past) I am going to post a series of essays on what I see as the big digital trends to watch in 2008. All of these are less about individual sites and technologies. Instead, what I hope to do is connect dots and start a dialogue with you about how technology will impact the media, marketers and consumers in the coming year.
In addition, to be quite honest, this is also my way of getting more disciplined about blogging more often. I really miss posting here regularly (beyond just the links). Further, as much as I love Twitter, it's not a medium that permits thoughtful analysis. As always, I am eager for your feedback. Your input makes me smarter and keeps me motivated.
Here's the first piece in the series...
For decades media and advertisers have thrived as two peas in a pod; a symbiotic ecosystem that benefits both equally. However, this is all starting to change.
Today, thanks to the web, every brand can become a media company if they put resources behind it. This means that the media and advertisers are increasingly battling each other for your constricting field of attention. In 2008 and beyond this will threaten to undermine the entire notion of ad-supported content and perhaps change the economics of both industries dramatically.
There are several forces at work here that are coming together to form a perfect storm.
For starters, there's the trust picture. Traditional advertising - especially online banners - are not trusted. Recent data from Nielsen shows that consumers put far more weight into individuals. This validates what the Edelman Trust Barometer has revealed over the last several years.
Second, we are seeing a critical mass of consumers using new technologies that let them bypass ads or even ad-supported content altogether. These include blogs, RSS, TiVo, DVRs, iPods, satellite radio and browser ad blockers.
Last but not least, the biggest story is that marketers are becoming a lot more confident online. They are starting to plow a significant portion of their budgets into digital media. As they do, they are investing in creating their own content. These properties leverage the same distribution channels that we, as individual publishers, use - most notably informal word of mouth networks, structured social networks and search engines.
If advertisers start creating their own online content in droves and find they can distribute it efficently, they may elect to bypass the media middleman. And why not? After all, they can build a direct relationship with their customers and achieve greater efficiencies in the process.
Already some of the biggest global brands, including several of our clients, are investing in creating their own content. Wal-Mart for example recently launched the Checkout blog. Dove has seen a lot of success in 2006 and this year with their series of striking videos. (Note: I am a consultant to Unilever but did not work on these videos.)
They aren't alone. Others like Sony and JC Penney are taking a different approach by aggregating content.
The media's challenge is to figure out how to thrive in transition as their big advertisers recognize they can use the web to bypass them. The key for the media is to use their reach to help marketers quickly build scale for their own content. This is no easy feat for businesses that have long fulfilled the producer role. However, they may increasingly need to find a way to balance their own content with advertiser-created offerings they host.
Should the media fail to transition in 2008, it's conceivable that more marketers will go it alone and the media will see their audience and dollars erode.
