Wither Blogging? Not Yet, But Perhaps Soon

Earlier this week we chatted - here and on Twitter - about Shiny Object Syndrome (SOS). Our appetite for new technologies and channels is certainly insatiable, but it points to a larger trend. Perhaps we're in search of a new format (or formats) to replace the almighty blog.

What, wither blogging? Not quite. I believe blogs remain extremely powerful and I plan to be a multi-format contributor. Still, a perfect storm is brewing that could one day mark the decline of the long form blog as we know and love it today.  BL Ochman and Michael Tangeman are two that are pondering the same trend.

Let's take a closer look at what's happening. There are three big forces at bay here.

First, there's the Attention Crash. The demands on our time, be they work, family, shiny objects or all of the above loom large. This is changing our media habits. We crave what's pithy and fun. That's one reason why YouTube and widgets got hot.

Second, there's the proliferation of mobile Internet usage. I don't have the statistics handy but my gut is that the upper strata of Forrester's participation ladder includes many smart-phone owners.

As a reporter from MSNBC found, you can increasingly do a lot with these devices by themselves. On my next short trip I plan to leave my laptop at home in favor of my iPhone, especially if I can plan it all so that I am around wifi.

What this all means is that mobile platforms and devices encourages people to publish more often, but in a far shorter format.

Last but not least we have social networking. These sites and services make it easier for us to tune into "signals" - e.g. people and topics we care about - and tune out noise.

So what does this mean all for blogging? I imagine over time some erosion. We will unsubscribe from low quality blogs written by strangers that we truly don't have time for, in favor of tuning into friends and their mobile streams. Perhaps it's already happening.