TV: The Next Great Development Platform

The personal computer was the first great development platform. The PC era ushered in giants like Microsoft, Apple, Sun and others. They all succeeded in creating great software that created operating system software that made computers far easier to use and more powerful. (Microsoft is an Edelman client.)

The computer - whether it is running Windows, Linux or OS X - is still a very robust market to develop for. Moore's Law has no immediate end in sight nor does our appetite for using our computers. Further, the gap between mobile phones and computers are narrowing with announcements like we saw from Microsoft today and Apple's forthcoming iPhone. So, for the purpose of this discussion I am lumping in mobile with computers as a single platform. The future remains bright for computers.

The second great development platform is the programmable web. Lots of businesses developed wonderful tools that work solely in a browser. The specific platforms - HTML, Javascript, Flash, Ajax, etc. - may change. However, the concept remains the same. Developers create web-based applications that, by being always connected, offer considerable advantages and value.

Clearly, with all of the new rich Internet applications coming on board, the Web has tremendous prospects as a dev platform. Further, now that millions of us are on broadband connections and the tools to create software has become democratized, we're just beginning to feel its impact.

Now let me throw a curveball at you. Think about what comes next. What hardware will emerge as a fertile ground where developers will want to plant some software seeds? Is there a piece of hardware that many people own that makes this all economically viable? The answer is yes and that platform is your television.

In 2007, for all but the alpha geeks, the cable and satellite companies determine who earns the right to have a place on your TV deck. That's changing. Attach an Apple TV, an XBox 360, and soon, a Slingcatcher and suddenly your TV can do things it couldn't do before. It can download video podcasts and other content from the Internet on the fly. Software is the magic that makes it happen. Further, if you purchase a Sony set you don't even need a third party box. These TVs have wifi and RSS built right in.

The TV is undergoing a renaissance. In five year's time, 50% of what the most coveted audiences watch on their sets will come off the Internet. However, it goes beyond the changes in video content. Television will run widgets and other connected software applications. These will be different from, yet complementary to what runs on a PC desktop or webtop. That's just the beginning.

Who will create the de-facto OS for your TV? Right now that's anyone's guess. The leaders are all the stalwarts from the PC era - e.g. Microsoft and Apple. And we haven't heard from the leaders who program the web yet. Companies like Google, for example. In addition, there are the companies who make the boxes (the Tivos of the world) and the cable/telcos who re-sell their boxes. These will run software too.

What is certain, though, is that once again TV is a growth business thanks to the Internet and software. And therefore the Golden Age of Television may be a head of us, not in our rear-view mirror.

Comments

[Lance Weber]

I can definitely see TV as the next convergence/transformation point in the digital lifestyle ecosystem. What I'm still struggling with is when/how does that open the door for those killer smart-home apps we've been dreaming of for the last couple of decades...

[Kris Patel]

I do see the potential of television as grabbing hold of web 2.0 and all of its advantages. However, I am not sure how well it will be grasped by society as a whole. As the internet was grabbing hold of people, WebTV came about in an effort to capture the TV audience and enthusiasts. It ran well for awhile but soon caved. The interface, I believe, is key. If those who are developing and promoting TV as the next big web content medium, we should see advents in the way we physically interact with the medium. What more is too come, I wonder?

[malcolm stanley]

To call out the point a bit further, an issue that Television has faced for many years has been a stifling of innovation, especially in interface design, driven by intellectual property concentration in user interfaces and content distribution security techniques. The web has recently spawned a tremendous amount of innovation in video service delivery; this innovation is enabled by open networks and widely dispersed intellectual property. As audiences have sought after novelty in content they have found that novel content is often delivered by non-traditional means, which happen to not fall under the closed regimes of the infrastructure (and content) supply chains of Cable and Satellite. The result, still anticipated, may be an explosion of innovation in interface design and integration with other applications. What is unclear is whether these innovations will yield lasting and monetizable value propositions to consumers. What is clear is that the traditional media and distribution companies, sheltered by monopoly protections and lacking incentive to innovate where they are not legally prevented from doing so, are ill-prepared for the near to midterm future as these changes begin to unfold.

[Michael Sommermeyer]

In my personal focus group I've noticed Darla and I don't just watch television anymore. We sit with our laptops following along with a program, searching the web, chatting with friends, playing games and tracking down additional clues, plots and gossip.

Television will develop as a new platform when it allows viewers to play along, visit with friends in far off places, and do all of this without a lot of hassles. Combine a Wii-type controller or a simple keyboard and you may start seeing television becoming the next Web2.0 miracle.

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[Barb Heffner]

I recently saw Baba Shetty, media guru at ad agency Hill Holliday and former Forrester analyst, speak at an MIT Digital Living forum. I think his money is on the Web. He cited Morgan Stanley’s 2007 forecast on ad spending, which reports that $75 million will be spent this year on television and just $20.4 on Internet advertising. In a nutshell, he doesn't feel like advertisers are moving fast enough to Internet ads, based on the eyeball stats. (Looking at the Jupiter stats based on your earlier post, they seem to back up his position.) An interesting stance coming from an ad guy!

[Josh Bernoff]

I love your insights Steve but this time you are way off.

I analyzed TV for Forrester for the last 10 years. Two facts are abundantly clear from the time I spent:

1. Consumers resist adding new stuff to their TV sets. You got your cable/satellite box, your game console, your DVD player. Even TiVo couldn't get much of a foothold. The new stuff tends to get integrated into the old stuff, not added. This is what dooms Apple TV.

2. The cable and satellite companies control their interfaces and won't let anything in that they don't like. This forecloses innovation. I can't count the number of innovative new companies that went bust waiting for these slow-moving companies to adopt their technologies.

Result: this is not and will not be an open platform any time soon.

How could this change? 1. Game consoles create an open platform. Do you think Sony & Microsoft & Nintendo would do that? 2. Telcos launch their set-tops with an open platform. Possible, not likely. Or 3. Somebody creates a next generation appliance to replace the DVD player -- a hi-def DVD with DVR and an open platform built into it. I know some folks working on this. If your vision ever happens, this is it how it will come to pass.

Just some thoughts./josh

[Rob Usdin]

The battle to be the Media OS is heating up!

What dooms Apple TV is that it is locked pretty much to people who have Macs, or are Apple techie fans. It does what it does well, from what I gather, but what it doesn't do and its cost for entry and upkeep(purchase of content) is VERY high. Why people are buying this and calling it great I can't for the life of me figure out.

The Apple TV does not display stuff in HD format. It's a downsample, and though I haven't seen it I have heard it's not as good as a DVD.

So if it's not even as good as a DVD - why bother?

Figure it on cost if you're an avid TV viewer. For me - I pay $20 a month for TIVO (two Tivos) and $45 a month for family cable (pure analog, without a cable box - yes it does still exist). Since most of the stuff on the iTunes store is on that tier - I'm not going to factor in digital cable.

So that's $65 a month. I currently watch 18 shows - so figure 18 shows times 4 times $1.99 an episode is $144 dollars through iTunes - if they even have all the stuff I want to watch.

So cable with my TIVO comes out to be less than half of what I'd pay for stuff on the iTunes store.

Moreover - My outlay for BOTH my TIvos was $50 for each. I still have the option of buying DRM'ed movies with Tivo and Amazon Unbox. I also have the option of renting movies (which you can't do with iTunes). Outlay for an AppleTV is $299 (!)

So I'm still trying to figure out what the point of the Apple TV is. It's not a DVR - so it's not like I can pause live TV, time shifting on the fly.

It seems like an overpriced waste of time when I compare it with my TIVOs. Am I missing something here?

--*Rob

[Alan Weinkrantz]

Steve...yes, but its really the TV / the PC / the wireless device that are the core development platforms. In an IP enbabled world, the content should work across these three plaftforms.

[Matteo Baldan]

Great Post!
So far the television has been under the control of some powerful groups.
Do you really think that Television 2.0 will allow everyone to broadcast his personal contents?
Don't you suspect that the ones who actually control the television won't easily give up their privileges?
What do you think mr Rupert Murdoch has been thinking about it? and what about the ex italian premier Silvio Berlusconi?