Within a year we're going to see blogs transforming themselves into customized start pages. This won't happen with all blogs. It will start with high-traffic sites that zero in on popular verticals like tech and politics. As these tools become more sophisticated and easy to use, the trend will migrate down the Long Tail into other niches.
This is the conclusion I reached as I read all of the widget news that came out of yesterday's Widget Live
conference in California. Widgets are getting really sophisticated. As
I have mentioned before, you can easily transform your default home page into
a one-stop-shop that covers most of your basic needs. So why can't a blogger provide the same service to people who share a common passion on a topic?
Well, for starters, we are missing key parts of the required infrastructure. Bloggers don't have an easy way to easily manage hundreds or thousands users and their registration and personalization data. This is why we'll see white label services emerge that allow publishers to to snap together widgets like building blocks into sophisticated start pages for their readers. Third parties will handle all of the back-end processing in exchange for a piece of the generated advertising revenue.I would not be surprised to see Google get into this game. It's a great next step for Adsense.
Google is not the only game in town, of course. Six Apart, AOL or any other big site would be wise to offer the same kind of service. For a glimpse, take a look at what AOL Instant Messenger is testing. They have a new program called AIM Whimsicals that bloggers can use to embed AIM functionality right into their sites. In essence, AIM Whimsicals let AIM users view their ow buddy list, send and receive IMs, and view presence information when they're visiting a participating site.
So we already see widgets are transforming the Web into a platform. Now this will become more democratized. By this time next year all publishers, large or small, will be able to become the de facto home page for people who care about a particular niche.
