Photo by Staci Kramer
Every other day, a new digital term is born. Lately, HDNet co-founder and Chairman Mark Cuban has been re-purposing the old piece of skateboard vernacular, "vert ramp," to describe Long Tail content crossing into the mainstream. I caught up with Mark to talk about Long Tail content, why online video stats are a joke and, no surprise here, high def TV. (This is also an extended version of my AdAge column.)
Q) In your post you talk about properties jumping from the Long Tail to the Vert Ramp. What about the reverse? Are there media properties in your view that will slide down into the Long Tail?
MC: I think that TV networks that can't make the transition to high def will, and there will be more examples than people expect.
I think most blogs, vlogs , podcasts, broadband TV shows that sneak out of the Long Tail, my blog included, will have a tough time staying out and earning more than minimum wage for their efforts.
I think follow up acts are 100x harder online than in traditional media.
Q) It seems like a lot of people down the Tail who aspire to jump on to the Vert Ramp are looking to advertisers as their great savior. What's it going to take for advertisers to begin to make big investments in the Tail or will they stick to the head?
MC: They will work with aggregators. Those who host the Long Tailers will get paid, those who create for the Long Tail rarely will.
The big risk to all will be the inevitable saturation of ad inventory. For the reasons you mention, everyone wants their slice of the advertising pie. Right now there is more ad money than inventory. That will change quickly over the next 12 to 24 months. The advantage may go to the diversified salesforce that can bundle multiple platforms. TV, search, net video, VOD, mobile.
There is also a risk, particularly for online video that the inventory saturation precedes verified numbers. Right now the concept of 'views' is as much a joke as people buying hits in 1998. Content providers game those numbers by the minute.
It won't be long till competition for ad dollars will require real video numbers and that could impact the strength of the net video ad market, or worse, turn it into an unverifiable throw in when bundled with other media.
Q) How is HDnet helping people down the Long Tail jump on the vert ramp? Is there enough HD content in the Tail yet to warrant such an effort?
MC: We don't care where our sources of content come from. We just want great content. We don't buy pedigree, we buy great programming. To your question HD content in the tail, its close to non existent. But the cost of HD camcorders is falling rapidly and PC video editing is already cheap. So it will happen.
Q) What about the NBA? Has the Long Tail reached the NBA in terms of where it finds talent, how it markets itself? How about the Mavs?
MC: No question. We search the globe for kids who can play in the NBA.
In terms of marketing, we deal with aggregators . That said, we will deal with influencers. The bigger value is in the movie marketing business. To drive box office or DVD sales, creating unwired networks of bloggers that can influence influencers is something we are now working on. We aggregate different groups of long tailers depending on what the movie content is.
Q) Finally, how should advertisers be adopting to the Long Tail? What's missing from the equation right now?
MC: Advertisers have to stop falling for hype and focus on what moves the meter that drives their business. I also think that advertisers need to start thinking in terms of dayparts. How people consume ads at work is different than when they happen to be surfing or playing online after checking their email, or while watching TV after dinner.
They also have to look forward rather than backwards. I'm obviously an HD bigot because of HDnet and HDnet movies. That said, does anyone really think that highdef is not going to happen? That 30mm people will buy HDTVs in 2007 and be happy to get ads in standard definition, or will they expect HD? That all those LCDs hanging on walls will be connected to computers anytime soon or show Internet video? They won't.
I think the living room is becoming the focus of family entertainment again. People are gathering around their brand new 40" plasma or LCD to watch shows and sports and movies in HD. Its an opportunity to get an advantage most advertisers are missing.
