The following is also my AdAge.com column...
Apple CEO Steve Jobs was at the top of his game when he rolled out new iPods and more last week. The big news, by far, is a product that will debut early next year. Tentatively called ITV, the set-top box will stream movies and television shows purchased on your Windows PC or Mac to your big screen TV.
Whether Jobs succeeds in his quest to turn every TV into one powered by Apple is an open question. Lots of companies are moving head-first into the IPTV space. However, what is certain is that the TV business is going to make another sharp hairpin turn that wil make your TiVo look like a UHF in a few years. Here are three trends to watch.
The Neighbors Move In
In order to succeed, the Apple ITV device and others like it will have to go beyond just streaming mainstream media content like movies and TV shows. Video on Demand, DVRs and TiVo already handle much of this quite adeptly. As high-powered video equipment, ultra wideband bandwidth and online storage come down in price, these technologies are going to become a lot more accessible to prosumers. This will open the TV to everyone and drive higher quality consumer generated content off Google Video and YouTube to your tube. In fact, Jobs said last week that ITV will be able to stream video podcasts to TVs when it ships.
A La Carte TV
Pretty much any television programming delivered over the Internet that you pay for comes ad free. As PCs and TVs get chummy, consumers may prefer to buy certain programming on an a la carte basis. For example, if you could care less about NFL football why should you have to pay for ESPN every month as part of your cable package? Instead you can just buy a game on the day of the big party and be done with it. This might mean that certain speicalized networks will begin to move to subscription models and even eschew advertising.
Network 23: The Ad Channel
In 1988 the cult sci-fi TV show Max Headroom portrayed a future dominated by corporate-controlled television networks. Maybe they were right. Advertising is a part of our life. As more Internet content finds its way on TVs and distribution costs will come down. Don't be surprised to see all kinds of new niche networks pop up that don't require advertising support. Could there be an all-Ad Channel one day? Let's hope so.
