Second Life Hype vs. Reality

You can't pick up a business publication or hang out with people who are enthusiastic about new ways of marketing without hearing about the Second Life virtual world/metaverse. I have written about it extensively here. I am very bullish on using Second Life as a platform for event marketing, virtual simulations and feedback, as are others in the marketing community.

Who can blame us? Although it's been around since 2003, the hype around Second Life has picked up dramatically in the last several months. It appears to be just off its all-time high. However, like any "mania" there is a bit of a gap between the hype and the truth. It's important to spell out what Second Life is and isn't - at least today.

Let's first take a look at the hype. Second Life right now is clocking an average of 175 blog mentions per day, according to Technorati. This peaked in early May around the time the BusinessWeek cover story came out on virtual worlds. If you take a look at the charts below you will also note that the hype around YouTube is outstripping that of Second Life on blogs by a factor of nearly 12 to one. Comparative data from Alexaholic also brings this out. (Note there could be some false positives here since "second life" is a common phrase and part of a TV show name.)

Also, some people incorrectly believe that Second Life has millions of users. It doesn't - yet. According to SL Population Statistics, the total metaverse population has climbed to over 400,000 residents. Yes, it's growing rapidly, but not as much as people may perceive. And when you dig into the data further, you learn more about your target.

First, Second Life's growth is not primarily being driven by all of the hype. Sure, it helps. Google Trends shows a spike in searches in the spring when the BusinessWeek cover story came out and the hype really took off. However, according to Catherine Omega, Second Life may be seeing its greatest boost from users who live outside the US. This is because in the spring Second Life creator Linden Lab removed the need to have a credit card to join. She also points out that SL is hiring in Asia with the intent to launch in Japan and Korea.

Next, Second Life has many people who try the service, but may not subscribe or return with any regularity. As Catherine notes, and the data shows, the growth concurrent logins are steady, not growing. The charts below show more. The first is overall population, the second is concurrent logins.

Unlike say YouTube or Wikipedia, browsing Second Life requires a time investment. You need to install an application on your computer, which some are naturally skittish about. Second, you have to want to learn the world and explore it. YouTube and other online communities, on the other hand, are more appropriate for those who like light fare and want to wind their way in and then out to other activities on the Web and then return. So, to me this means the engaged Second Life citizen is more technically adept than many of us.

Finally to wrap up, Second Life without a doubt is exciting and it is growing fast. It's a community that marketers definitely should get involved with since its ascension will continue. However, it is not growing nearly as fast as many perceive or as rapidly other communities that encourage participation. I am a little concerned about the concurrent login data. It points that Second Life engagement may not be as high as we think and there's a bit of a gap between hype vs. reality.

Take all of this into consideration when launching programs in the metaverse. Know as much as you can about who uses Second Life, what they want to accomplish within the virtual world and how you can help them do just that.

So experiment, yes, but do your homework.

Tags: secondlife, metaverse, statistics, lindenlabs

Comments

[Gary Hayes]

Hi Steve,

All great points but you need to go even further into the detail. Firstly I am a power second life user and am very aware that this is the start of something much bigger - but as you and many others suggest, what we have is a bubble that has been prematurely inflated, and which may burst very soon.

There is value in using Second Life as a marketing exercise without doubt BUT it is not about marketing to those in-world but more about the PR that goes around being able to say - "we are doing stuff in virtual worlds". It gives the marketeer a little edge and will make them appear out on the edge etc etc: We all know that one. The reason why? Well as you point out concurrent (or simultaneous users) are only around 7-8 thousand. These are dispersed over a large area and not able to receive messages in a 'broadcast' type mode. Also if you want to run a 'pr event' in Second Life you will have a technical problem in trying to get more than 40 people/avatars in one place - the servers will not support more. So even over a 2-5 hour event no more than a few hundred will be 'marketable'.

So Second Life is still very small. The hype is useful and it is more about the virtual/real US economy more than a new way of socializing and it is more about the 'cool' factor out of world than getting messages to people in world.

Thanks for raising this Steve

Gary Hayes

[rikomatic]

At the recent "metaverse meetup" in New York last week, we discussed some of the issues facing potential marketers entering into SL. As one person noted, simply creating virtual versions of your product and dispensing them in-world will not enhance your mind-share. But if you create a virtual EXPERIENCE that people will want to engage in, the avatars will beat a path to your door.

I.e. a club that plays the latest CD of an artist with in-world appearances by their virtual doppelgangers.

Or a simulated spa where people can relax with links to the real world spa website to purchase spa packages.

Marketing needs to use the advantages of the environment to create maximal impact.

[Catherine Omega]

Hi Steve,

I just wanted to note that average concurrent logins appear to have risen quite radically, while the number that's moving up steadily is only peak concurrent logins, likely some point during the late evenings when both the East and West coasts of North America are seeing heavy logins.

Also on my todo list: compare the time shift of the moment peak concurrency is hit each day. If my theory is correct, it's changed by up to three hours over the last year.

Good post!
Catherine Omega

[Tony Walsh]

The definition of SL's population has been the subject of speculation over the years. Over 400,000 people have ever signed up for an account, but the active users stat is about half that. Recently, Linden Lab revealed that its front-page stat for "Residents" was "a time-weighted average between 'total number of signups ever' and 'total number of logged in users over the last 60 days'."

Historical population info and commentary available via Clickable Culture.

[Linda Zimmer]

I honestly think that if you look at Second Life as a PR or a marketing device, you are missing something rather fundamental.

I agree Second Life is immature and experimental - and overly-hyped (but only that the hype is for the wrong reasons). It isn't the newest marketing mecca or the next PR medium.

Rikomatic is right (as you would expect!) that it is about experience. But more importantly, we communicators need to enter, learn and understand SL and other 3D enviroments because this is the beginning of the way audiences will be interacting with content on the web in the near future. It isn't about "how do WE use it" - it's about "how will our audiences need it?"

[Giff Constable]

Good post Steve. There are interesting and useful things marketers and businesses can do within SL and bring to SL right now, but yes it is definitely, definitely early days.

One graph caught my eye -- the alexa graph seemed to be measuring secondlife.com, but keep in mind that this will not measure people actually logging into the virtual world, since they do so direct through the SL client.

[hunter]

If Hype is defined as "perception exceeding reality" then Second Life is by its nature a perpetual hype machine.

Why? Because the magic of SL is the sense of possibility - the world can be (or become) anything. Which means that you of course are going to speculate on the dreams and ideas of how it will evolve. Perhaps even above and beyond what it is today.

I'd suggest that most residents are into SL 25% for what it can do today and 75% for what it will be tomorrow.

That's the magic. And what leads to the excitement. Which results in the hype. Just reality lagging imagination.

hunter
(once a Linden Lab employee and still a big fan)

[Duncan]

Steve,
just to note, I don't think a lot of the metrics you are using here are particularly relevant to Second Life, I'm frequently on Second Life yet I'd be lucky if I visited the secondlife.com page once a week (got flamed in the forums too much about a year ago :-) ). The point being I guess is that comparing Youtube.com to secondlife.com doesn't work because the vast majority of people using Second Life won't be going back to the secondlife.com main page, they'll be logging directly into Second Life.

[scott]

One of those actually looked like an EKG reading, Steve. That's a lot of damn charts.

[bengston]

steve, I think you miss another point here: people on second life *pay* to use a service. I just seen in a news bit on swiss TV, that the company earns some 140 million franks *per month*. I think you are comparing apples and oranges here when looking at traffic charts as some comments already pointed out.

[rebecca]

I really enjoyed reading this post and the insightful comments.

I completey agree with the comment by hunter. To me, what is exciting about Second Life is what it's potential COULD be. Not only in terms of marketing but in terms of changing our lives.

Who knows if this will actually happen, but it's fun to talk about!

[csven]

Those of us who've been in SL for a bit have been giving quite a bit of thought to how this technology will evolve, and there are those (myself especially) who see this as something bigger than marketing.

If you've not read some of my entries on the topic of leveraging the data beyond tracking eyeballs and selling, I'd suggest you read the following:

http://blog.rebang.com/?p=186
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=403
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=634
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=577

The first and last are really about marketing while the second and third show some examples of how the data was moved.

[csven]

Those of us who've been in SL for a bit have been giving quite a bit of thought to how this technology will evolve, and there are those (myself especially) who see this as something bigger than marketing.

If you've not read some of my entries on the topic of leveraging the data beyond tracking eyeballs and selling, I'd suggest you read the following:

http://blog.rebang.com/?p=186
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=403
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=634
http://blog.rebang.com/?p=577

The first and last are really about marketing while the second and third show some examples of how the data was moved.

[csven]

Apologies for the double post. The site gave me some kind of upload proxy error on the first attempt.

[Simster]

Compare the user base of SecondLife with The Sims. Nuff said.

[Randal Oulton]

Some good points. Though an avid newbie, it's hard for even just a semi-critical eye not to see the gap between the marketing and the reality. One item hyped is Second Life as a marketplace. The actual experience is that most advertising, signage and posters in SL stores are wasted because they remain grey, not rezzing in time to catch the shopper's attention. There are no protections for consumers: little information is provided on the items sold, and customer service and refund policies are at the whim of the person running the shop. That's provided of course you waited long enough for the visuals to rez in so that you could make a purchase, or that you didn't get fed up by the lag that makes it seem like you are walking through molasses. The retailers there are very inexperienced, for example mixing up women's clothes with men's on the same rack or wall, and not even labelling the difference. Should Linden go bankrupt or closes it doors, it will take down everyone's online business and land holdings with it -- something no one talks about, this single point of vulnerability. Passing by many other points, I'll get to the number of users. You are right, there is a huge discrepancy between the number of people who have tried it at one point, and those who have actually joined. And of those who have joined recently, a great number seem to be those without credit cards, so they have no money "in world" to help keep it all running. And ultimately, Linden's own developers have sealed their own fate and capped their own numbers by making a decision not to support Intel graphic cards. However necessary, worthy, etc this decision, what it has done is ultimately triaged their potential market even further. 55% of home computers ship with Intel graphic cards in them, and the resounding majority of home users wouldn't dream of opening up their computer and putting in a new graphics card, as Linden breezily suggests. Again, the decision may be necessary technically, but if I were a business person looking to reach an audience on the web and knew up front that SL automatically excluded 55% of the home audience, I would turn back to a good old fashioned web site instead to flog my stuff.

[volkov]

Hi Steve, I think that advertising in Second Life is very interesting, and opens up many possibilites for marketing. I wrote about Second Life in my own blog: http://callfromnextlife.blogspot.com

[Daniel S.]

Hi,

I stumbled over your article while searching the pattern "I hate second life"...more a joke or curiousness.

The latter I guess, since I tried it and was very dissatisfied. You have to know, that I am into technical evolution for several hundred years...um...well two and a half decades and I use the forthcomings of this evolution as it is useful to me. But I do not see a "real" future for broad masses in such virtual lifes in the next 20 to 50 years. While there may come the time it might be useful to have such a virtual identity.

I thought this would be the right place to give this first and only comment on "second life".

Do not get it wrong, nice work, so it's kind of revolutinary but not for my type of people... who do not like nowadays most ways of marketing and PR ;)

(Any mispellings may be due to my lack of speaking proper english for a longer period now.)

Have fun and enjoy your lifes whereever it might be the best for you and others!

Bye,
Daniel S.