The Transient Web

Orderly Canadians queue up by Aviator Dave

I have been on the Web for 12 years now and the Internet for many more, going all the way back to BBSs, CompuServe and Genie. If there's one thing I've learned it's that the Web is a very transient place. People are like birds. They consistently migrate to new sites and services. Consider the following.

Today the default Internet Explorer home page is MSN.com. Next year it will be Windows Live.

A year ago if you wanted to watch videos you turned to Real Player. Today it's YouTube, Revver, OurMedia or Google Video.

Two years ago if we wanted to look up an obscure fact, you went to Encarta. Now we go to Wikipedia.

Three years ago we found old friends on Friendster. Today we find new friends on MySpace.

Four years ago, we browsed lots of news sites and subscribed to email newsletters. Today we read blogs through RSS feeds.

Five years ago we searched for images on Google Image Search. Today we look for tags on Flickr.

Six years ago it was all about Yahoo. Today it's all about Google.

Seven years ago Amazon was at $100, more than twice what it is today. Today Google is at $415.

Eight years ago you read your personal email in Outlook Express. Now you read it on the Web.

Nine years ago we played Acrophobia online. Today we play Xbox Live or Second Life.

Ten years ago we formed communities on GeoCities. Today we form communities through connected spaces like the blogosphere.

The moral of the story is if you look back at your browsing habits over the past ten years, it's highly likely that some of the sites you visit frequently now are not the same ones you visited two, four or six years ago. The Web is a transient place. People move around a lot.

Only one site, eBay, seems to have retained users over the past ten years. And that's because they listened to their community and innovated. Google, so far, has done the same. But will they? Time will tell but $415 a share says they won't because the Web is increasingly flat.

(Disclaimer - Xbox, MySpace and Revver are Edelman clients)

Comments

[or]

Some of your then and now comparisons are not as straightforward as you are suggesting. This is because you are either looking at things only through your own perspective, or that things are just not that simple.

For example:
"Five years ago we searched for images on Google Image Search. Today we look for tags on Flickr." Many people still use Google image search. I have only used Flickr once or twice, and I know many people who have never even heard of Flickr. But yes, many people also use Flickr today.
"Six years ago it was all about Yahoo. Today it's all about Google." Yahoo is still a very popular service, and sometimes it is about Yahoo; it's not always about google. But yes, Google gets more public attention.
"Seven years ago Amazon was at $100, more than twice what it is today. Today Google is at $415." Yes, but Amazon is still a very strong online company.
"Eight years ago you read your personal email in Outlook Express. Now you read it on the Web." Many, many people still read email through outlook express, even when they have an online email account.
"Only one site, eBay, seems to have retained users over the past ten years." What about Yahoo? They have retained users also. Sure they have lost some, but Ebay lost some too.

The better question is not whether or not Google's stock price will go down, or whether google will remain number one share or not. It's impossible to keep that position forever. The better question is if they can maintain a strong business even when the hype surrounding them has waned - this is what Yahoo and Ebay did.

[Brian Clark]

The great thing about you Steve is that you have 12 years of online longevity under your belt. It's always easier to look to a "long termer" for perspective, with so many new Pundit 2.0s coming on the scene.

[Tammy]

I have to say that everything changes and shifts in life and on the net. I remember first finding Google and thinking it was slick but then again that was when chatting on ICQ was the next best thing. So over the years I've seen that the companies that thrive despite hard knocks are the ones that are innovative AND give people what they are looking for. No one stays number one forever but to stay in the top 10 or 20 in their niche on a world wide scale is not to scoffed at - it is a major accomplishment for any business.

[Ohad]

Steve,
Your post details a pretty good overview on the evolution of the internet for us surfers. I think most of the examples shown in this post relate more to power users and less to the less advanced users.
The last paragrpah is what IMHO is going to change the world. Blogging is an amazing medium to communicate and it's growing every day.

[Mike Abundo]

That's why personal sites rock. The Web may be transient, but a person is not.

[objbuilder]

The reason eBay is still doing well is the same reason Google will be around for the next 30 years.. and it's *not* due to innovation. It's becau$e they $hare their revenue with cu$tomer$ enabling them to earn cold hard ca$h.

[chrisco]

This post seems to miss the big picture. The basic premise of the Internet is not changing at all.