Web 2.0 Doesn't Mean You're Excused from Reality
So Yahoo missed its analyst's estimates today and the stock is already down 13 percent after the close. If Yahoo can't make its analyst's numbers then clearly online advertising isn't growing as fast as we would all like to think or hope. Keep in mind that Yahoo missed its estimates in a good advertising economy!
The Web 2.0 crash-ola is coming much sooner than I feared. Already Searchfox is toast. Who's next? Sell GOOG that's for sure.
If you're a start-up hoping to pin your business on advertising, get to higher ground. I expect we'll see a rash of mergers, acquisitions and partnerships over the next few months as well as some flat out failures. (By the way, I think this is all healthy for the long-term health of the Web 2.0 “industry.”)
Here's where to watch the unfortunate carnage...
Posts that contain Web 2.0 Crash per day for the last 30 days.
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Technorati Tags: Advertising, Crash, Uh Oh, Yahoo






Steve, You're in a chipper mood tonight. :-)
Posted by: Michael Arrington | Tuesday, January 17, 2006 at 09:06 PM
In a chipper mood, and giving me whiplash...
While I agree with you that the AdSense meme has been hugely oversold--wasn't that you, one post back, saying "we live in a world where the Long Tail dominates"? And describing the feeding frenzy around Blogpulse, Intelliseek, etc.?
Web 2.0 is dead, long live Web 2.0! Only you've posted those thoughts in the opposite order.
Posted by: Betsy Devine | Tuesday, January 17, 2006 at 10:27 PM
Steve, what on earth are you talking about? Yahoo posts stellar numbers (oh, yeah, but misses Wall's Street's guesstimate by a cent) and Web 2.0 is imploding? And we should all sell GOOG? Why exactly? Because if Yahoo is losing out at all it's losing out to GOOG. Yet the hysterical aftermarket marks down GOOG by 3.5%. Amazing. Not all new businesses are bubbles, guys.
Posted by: Stephen Ayer | Tuesday, January 17, 2006 at 10:36 PM
Steve - all this really means AT THE MOMENT is that Yahoo! didn't perform well as expected:
"Yahoo met its internal guidance and gained market share against other portal rivals, including Google and MSN, said Dan Rosensweig, chief operating officer."
We'll all know more when GOOG reports.
On the more general point, I agree about ad-sponsored small services - dumb idea.
Posted by: Dennis Howlett | Tuesday, January 17, 2006 at 11:28 PM
Hey Steve,
Yahoo didn't miss *it's* estimates, but rather Wall Street's. Yahoo estimated between 15-20 cents per share and hit that with 16 cents. Wall Street expected 17 cents. While not great, the sky is not falling (yet)
Posted by: Anon | Wednesday, January 18, 2006 at 02:49 AM
I corrected my post to reflect it was analyst estimates. Betsy, I am bullish on the power of the Long Tail, but the earnings potential may not flow down as far as we would all like. Yahoo is a bellweather. Revisit their stock history and you will see some interesting correlations to the broader market.
Posted by: Steve Rubel | Wednesday, January 18, 2006 at 07:18 AM
I'm not surprised Yahoo was off a little bit, as that's a natural consequence of buying up many companies all at once. Anyone who has even a cursory knowledge of financials knows that multiple successive acquisitions result in a short-term dip. Plus that MSN deal expiring probably did more to lower the share price than missing estimates by a cent.
Steve, you're making a name for yourself by being the first Web 2.0 Chicken Little, so good luck to you with that. However, I think you're starting to sound a bit shrill when you're using a single cent as evidence that the sky is falling.
Posted by: Paul Montgomery | Wednesday, January 18, 2006 at 12:07 PM
Don't think there will be a crash because unlike the 90's there is an actual business model. With more people moving to the Internet I'm confused on this bubble crash.
Posted by: Rog | Thursday, January 19, 2006 at 08:51 PM
Uh ... searchfox's technology was acquired by Yahoo!
http://3gsearch.blogspot.com/2006/01/yahoo-acquires-searchfox.html
Posted by: | Thursday, January 19, 2006 at 11:26 PM
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