Peter Predicts a Big Dead Tree will Fall

On his new blog PR pro Peter Shankman is predicting that in the second half of 2007 we will witness the death of the first "big" newspaper from the convergence of blogs, podcasts, and the like. He's not talking here about the Peoria Journal Star. He means the big boys like the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

There's no doubt that blogs are forcing newspapers to change. In fact, OJR reports that the LA Times is rolling out blogs and more. But I have to disagree with Peter here. First of all, mid-2007 is just two years away. Yes, technology is advancing rapidly. However, consumer habits aren't - just look at how many folks are reading RSS feeds right now. It's 5% of the total online audience, according to Pew. RSS usage will grow, but it's going to take time.

Also, the fact is that many people just love to read newsprint. Maybe in twenty to thirty years as the Baby Boomer population declines we will see the generations that grew up on the Net eschew paper. However, in the meantime I am not betting that print will go away so fast.

What may happen is that more people will begin to access newspaper sites throughout the day as an adjunct to what they read in the paper that morning. Blogs, podcasts and other forms of new media will help facilitate this thanks to their dynamic, conversational nature. Net, it's not a zero sum game - yet.